State Economic Watch

Here’s an interesting graphic to contemplate while you’re waiting for the ball to drop. It's from the US Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey . The Survey covers a wide range of topics related to current and forecast business conditions. The data is released biweekly and the most recent data set was released today.  The exhibit below reflects state-by-state responses to the question “In the last two weeks, did this business use Artificial Intelligence (AI) in any of its business functions? (Examples of AI: machine learning, natural language processing, virtual agents, voice recognition, etc.)”. The range of responses was fairly wide. Businesses in Mississippi and Arkansas reported the smallest AI uptake, while those in Rhode Island and Arizona the largest. Of course it’s early days yet, and the response rates are likely driven, in large measure, by the industries that are clustered or concentrated in each state, but nevertheless, it is interesting to see where AI is b...

In one of the last remaining monthly state JOLTS reports to be released, the BLS today reported little change in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover data for October 2025. Job opening rates were unchanged in the vast majority of the states, but were up between two and four percentage points in Alaska, Montana, and Wyoming. Similarly, layoff rates increased in South Carolina, New Mexico, and New Jersey, but decreased in Colorado, Iowa, and Connecticut. However, in all of these cases, the change in the layoff rate was less than one percent. The below graphic illustrates the range of layoff and discharge rates nationally in October.

Once again, we see the monthly House Price Indices from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) confirming the data from the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller release. Similar to this morning’s Case-Shiller announcement, the FHFA reports that while its national House Price Index (SA) increased 1.7% m/m in October 2025, the regional differences were striking. According to the FHFA data, house prices were down y/y in the West South Central and South Atlantic regions, flat in the Pacific and Mountain regions, and notably higher in the Middle Atlantic, East North Central, West North Central, and New England regions. The East South Central region posted a modest y/y gain in house prices. We will get more granular data from the FHFA when it releases the quarterly state indices in February, but the broader monthly figures continue to indicate a rotation out of some of the once high-flying sun belt markets and into the Upper Midwestern and Northeastern markets.  

The October 2025 S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices reflect a continually slowing housing market, as the National Composite Index (NSA) increased only 1.4% y/y, the weakest since mid-2023 according to today’s press release. The slowdown is being acutely experienced in sun belt cities, like Tampa, Phoenix, and Dallas, which saw y/y declines of greater than 1%. Conversely, some of the largest y/y gains were posted by snow belt cities like Chicago, Cleveland, and New York. On a m/m basis, most of the cities in the 20-City Composite Index posted losses, with only three managing to eke out minimal increases. The National Composite Index value hit its most recent peak in July 2025 and has been declining since then. 

The results of the most recent Federal Reserve Bank of New York Business Leaders Survey indicates that the service sector in the New York-Northern New Jersey region continued to slump in December. The top line business activity index remained in negative territory as did the business climate Index. The activity index has been below zero since October 2024, but the current December reading of -20 is slightly better than the prior month’s -21.7. The climate index on the other hand, hasn’t been in positive territory since August 2021, and the December 2025 reading of -44.2 is the worst since June 2025. The employment index has been negative for four consecutive months, but December’s -7.4 was a tick better than November’s -8.6. Finally, the capital spending index was negative for the third consecutive month at -6.9.  The six-month forward indexes told a slightly better story. The forward employment index held to a minimally positive at +3.8. While the forward business activity and cl...

North Dakota’s oil production has remained stable even as recent oil prices have hovered around the break even level, according to the state’s Department of Mineral Resources . The Department’s Director, Nathan Anderson, attributes this to new drilling technology being utilized by producers in the state which allows them to drill horizontally for three to four miles rather than the standard two. According to Anderson, this improves the drilling economics by shortening the payback period, among other things. As a result, even with the US EIA projecting WTI prices in the low $50s for 2026, North Dakota oil production is expected to remain firm.

Terrific article in today’s New York Times about one of this blog’s favorite topics - the tourism economy. Not only has most international tourism failed to recover, but some travel industry experts are also beginning to quietly question whether the World Cup will actually generate the amount of international tourist traffic and spending that has been projected. Good read for a holiday weekend.  

The 3Q2025 Economic Summary Report released this week by the Wyoming Department of Administration and Information reflects continued slow, but steady economic growth in the state. Total employment increased 0.4% y/y in the quarter, with growth in the transportation and utilities, education and health, and government sectors offsetting losses in mining, construction, and wholesale trade. The state’s unemployment rate remained below the national average at 3.3%. Home prices continued to increase in the quarter, but at a modest rate of 1.2% y/y. Tourism was firm, while the farm sector was helped by increases in livestock prices. Agricultural sector earnings also supported state personal income growth and helped to offset the decline in mining sector earnings. 

The December General Fund Consensus Estimate from the New Mexico Legislative Finance Committee (LFC) reflects a slight improvement to the state’s economic forecast compared to the figures in the August Forecast, but the figures still indicate expectations of slow economic growth for the state over the next few years. The LFC economists generally expect the state’s economy to grow at a slower pace than that of the US, as projections of moderate oil and gas prices are anticipated to be a drag on the state’s economy.  The December forecast calls for New Mexico real GDP growth of 1.7% in FY26, 2.0% in FY27, and 1.7% in FY28, compared to the 1.3%, 1.9%, and 1.6% estimates in the August forecast. Similarly, the outlook for employment growth has improved minimally in the out years from the August forecast of 0.6% NFP growth in FY26, 0.2% in FY27, and 0.2% in FY28, to a revised December forecast of 0.5% in FY26, 0.6% in FY27, and 0.4% in FY28.

The New Jersey Business and Industry Association is out with its 67th annual Business Outlook Survey . According to the results, New Jersey businesses are not happy about the cost of energy in the state, with 77% of respondents saying it has impacted their business and 81% saying they aren’t confident these costs will moderate in 2026. Further, 59% say they have no plans to expand their New Jersey operations and 29% indicate that they will expand in another state. The employment outlook is mixed, with 24% of businesses planning to increase payrolls while 12% expect to reduce headcount. This increase/decrease spread of 12% is the smallest since 2013 and lower than the 18% quoted in last year's survey. The respondents’ outlook for the New Jersey economy has deteriorated since the 2024 survey, with 16% projecting an improvement over the next six months compared to 23% in 2024, and 41% anticipating that the state’s economy will get worse compared to 26% a year ago.

The Wisconsin Bankers Association has released the results of its latest semi-annual Economic Conditions Survey of bank CEOs. The survey was taken during the November 17-December 12 period.The results of the current survey were very similar to those of the 2025 mid-year survey, with 79% of respondents categorizing the state’s economy as “good”. However, the percentage classifying it as “excellent” dropped from 7% in the mid-year survey to 0% in the year-end survey. A slightly higher percentage of respondents expect the state’s economy to grow over the next six months, with that figure increasing to 28% from 24% at mid-year. The “grow” percentage appears to be the beneficiary of an equivalent drop in the “stay the same” percentage, with that figure declining from 59% to 55%.

Nice article from the folks at Lending Tree analyzing the data from the US Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey . According to their analysis, Mississippi is the state with the highest percentages of businesses that anticipate increasing payrolls, with 16.2% expecting to add headcount over the next six months. At the other end of the spectrum, Montana seems to have the least optimistic businesses, with 17.7% expecting to reduce employment over the same period. The authors of the study suggest a political element in the results and point out  that “a red state/blue state divide is clear in business optimism”, as most of the states with the highest level of business optimism voted Republican in 2024, while the majority of the most pessimistic states voted Democratic. The article has a nice level of detail without being too dense, and contains some instructive graphics. It’s a quick but very informative read.   

South Dakota’s state economist noted last week that the “sluggish farm economy” as he put it,  is hurting the state’s sales tax collections. Sales tax revenue in FY2025 was down 0.6%, but recent months’ collections were somewhat better y/y. In the supplemental slides to the Governor’s December 2, 2025 budget address, the state forecasts slow employment and income growth in 2026 and 2027. The below is reproduced from that slide deck.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is out with another District Data Brief   focusing on state international trading patterns. This time it’s Ohio. The Cleveland Fed’s economists classify Ohio as a net importer with its imports of $86.8 billion in 2024 far exceeding exports of $57.4 billion, and they note that Canada is the state’s largest trading partner. Canada accounted for 22% of all Ohio imports in 2024, followed by the EU at 21%, but it accounts for an even greater portion of the state’s exports at 36%. Not surprisingly, transportation equipment makes up a considerable percentage of both the state’s exports and imports, with imports of pharmaceuticals not too far behind. Given Ohio’s sizable exposure to trade with Canada, it will be very interesting to see what impact the new federal tariff and trade policies will have on its trade statistics in 2025 and beyond. 

The latest issue of the Rocky Mountain Economist from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reports that employers in the Colorado-Wyoming-New Mexico region expect payrolls to remain stable in 2026. According to the results of the most recent Kansas City Fed Manufacturing and Services Surveys (November 2025), 30% of the respondents expect to increase payrolls next year, while 31% expect to reduce payrolls. This is a notable change from the statistics reported a year ago, when 50% of employers expected to increase headcount and only 12% anticipated reductions. Additionally, the surveys found that employers in the region no longer feel the need to increase wages to attract talent. Given the survey results, the economists at the Kansas City Fed conclude that “employment in the region has less momentum going into 2026 than at this time last year”.

The Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy, part of the Strome College of Business at Old Dominion University released its 11th annual State of the Commonwealth report yesterday. The report is primarily a backward looking, but comprehensive analysis of the state’s economy. It notes that “economic activity has slowed in Virginia”, and forecasts state real GDP growth of 1.5% for 2025, compared to 3.4% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024. The report attributes this slowdown to reductions in federal spending and employment, the impact of tariffs on port activity, and declines in consumer sentiment. While the report doesn’t provide a 2026 forecast, buried on page 36 is this nugget: “prospects for continued growth for Virginia in 2026 are diminished”. You can find a link to the press release here and a link to the full presentation here .

The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, part of the Haslam College of Business at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, is out with its 2026 Economic Report to the Governor . Produced annually for the last 50 years, the report is a comprehensive look at both the state and national economy. In the latest edition, the Boyd Center economists project continued slow growth for Tennessee’s economy in 2026, with real GDP growth of 2.0% expected after an estimated 1.7% gain in 2025. State nonfarm payrolls are forecast to grow by only 0.9% in 2026, only slightly better than the meager 0.7% growth estimated for 2025. The report points to an aging population, increased retirements, and federal immigration policies as factors that could constrain payroll growth going forward. The Boyd Center’s long term forecast calls for state real GDP growth of 2.5% to 2.6% and real NFP growth of 1.1% to 1.3% from 2027-2030, with growth rates for both measures moderating somewhat in the post-2030...

The latest quarterly economic outlook from the University of Hawaii’s Economic Research Organization (UHERO) is similar to its fall forecast, although the tourism projections aren’t as gloomy. Its current forecast calls the state’s outlook “challenging” and projects a “mild recession” and “weak recovery” for the state. UHERO still projects flat state real GDP and personal income next year, after both increased an estimated 2% in 20205. Similarly, employment is projected to decline 0.3% in 2026 thanks to reductions in the government and hospitality sectors. Construction is expected to remain a bright spot for employment. The forecast calls for state payrolls to slowly improve in the second half of 2026. The tourism numbers are not as bad as previously predicted, but the UHERO is still projecting a drop in international tourism, particularly from Japan and Canada. Overall, both air passenger traffic and tourism spend are projected to be down in 2026.  We note that the state governme...

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland published an Informative analysis of Kentucky’s international trade patterns this morning. No, it’s not all bourbon. According to the analysis of the state’s trading relationships from 2008-2024, Kentucky is a net importer, with 2024 imports of $94.5 billion far exceeding exports of $47.9 billion.  The report identifies the EU as the state’s largest trading partner in 2024, accounting for 31.4% of imports, followed by Mexico at 10.5%. Interestingly, the report notes that the state’s imports from China have fallen significantly in recent years, from just over 24% in 2010 to about 7% in 2024. A sizable percentage of the 2024 imports, 36%, were pharmaceuticals and medicines, principally from Ireland and Singapore. The EU is also cited as the largest export market for the state, accounting for 23% of all exports in 2024, followed by Canada at 20%. Kentucky’s largest export category by far was transportation equipment, which accounted for over 53% ...

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its delayed September 2025 State Coincident Indexes this morning. The indexes of 41 states increased over the past three months, while those of eight states declined and one remained unchanged. As a result, the three-month diffusion index fell to 66 in September from 78 in August. This was the lowest reading for the three-month diffusion index since September 2024. Similarly, the one-month diffusion index dropped 30 points in September to 38, its lowest level since July 2024. West Virginia and Delaware each saw three-month index declines of greater than 1%, while Colorado and Alabama posted index increases of greater than 1%. The exhibit below is reproduced from the press release. The next release of State Coincident Indexes is scheduled for January 9, 2026.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s December Empire State Manufacturing Survey reflects a modest drop in current business activity in New York State, but also a solid uptick in future expectations. The Survey’s general business conditions index fell for the first time in three months, dropping 23 points to -3.9. Most of the component indexes such as shipments and new orders moved lower m/m, but the employment index ticked up 0.7 points to 7.3 in December, and the prices paid index receded to 37.6 from 49 in November. The forward looking indexes however, showed an increased level of optimism on the part of New York State businesses, with the six month future business conditions index increasing 17 points to 35.7, its highest level since January 2025. Additionally, the future orders and future shipments indexes both hit 2025 highs. The expectations indexes for headcount and capital expenditures six months out remained in positive territory, but were down slightly from the November re...

The Democratic minority of the Congressional Joint Economic Committee has released a report outlining the economic impact on the border states of the drop in Canadian visitations this year. According to the report, the border states experienced y/y declines in Canadian tourism of 20% or more in 2025. Of course, since the report was written by the JEC minority, it has to be read in that context, but nevertheless, the declines in cross-border tourism this year are hard to ignore and the report is well worth a read. It will be interesting to see whether or not the 2025 declines were a one-off overreaction to political events, or if this reduced level of Canadian tourism carries into 2026.

The new Vanderbilt University Statewide Poll 2025 indicates that while Tennessee residents have a high degree of confidence in the state’s economy, they’re not so optimistic about their own financial situation. According to the poll, 61% of respondents categorized the state’s economy as good or very good. On a personal level though, Vanderbilt found that “economic anxiety has increased”, with 87% of respondents noting that the cost of living is “somewhat or very expensive”, 77% worried about being able to pay for emergencies, and 51% concerned about being able to cover everyday household expenses. Finally, 70% expressed concerns about being able to save for retirement or education expenses. It will be interesting to see what kind of effect, if any, these poll numbers will have on things like personal consumption, retail sales, and the state’s housing market. The poll was conducted November 12-19, 2025. This link to the press release also includes a short video from the University.

The Selig Center for Economic Growth, part of the Terry College of Business at the University of Georgia, released a cautionary forecast for the Georgia economy in 2026. Its baseline forecast calls for real GPD growth of 1.5% for the state next year, compared to the estimated 1.4% in 2025, and for nonfarm payroll growth of 0.5%, equal to that of 2025. It also forecasts an increase in the state’s unemployment rate to 4.1% from an estimated 3.6% in 2025. Here’s the key sentence from the Center’s Georgia Outlook 2026 : “In short, Georgia’s economy will struggle, and it would not take much to tip it into recession”.  Some of the factors cited for this rather dismal forecast include a reduced level of economic development projects, negative net international migration and flat domestic net migration, a slowdown in global trade, and weakness in the state’s real estate market. On the plus side, the Center notes that the state will benefit from increased federal homeland security and mili...

Yesterday, the I owa Revenue Estimating Conference improved its forecast for state revenues slightly. In its October estimate, the REC projected a 9% y/y decline in the state’s General Fund receipts in FY2026, but the new December estimate revises that projection to an 8.8% y/y decline. The REC cited the impacts of tariffs and inflation on business and consumer spending as drivers of continued economic uncertainty for the state, but noted that the outlook for the agricultural sector was beginning to improve thanks to recent increases in crop prices and some renewed soybean purchases by China, as well as the recently announced new round of federal support payments.  

According to today’s release of the September State Employment and Unemployment report from the BLS, eight states saw increases in their unemployment rates m/m in September and 18 posted y/y increases. The largest m/m increases were seen in Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York and West Virginia, all of which increased 0.2%. Over the year, Oregon saw the biggest increase in unemployment, with its rate moving from 4.2% to 5.2%. Delaware and DC were just behind with each seeing a 0.9% increase. However, we note that Oregon and Delaware both saw labor force increases of approximately 1% over that period, exceeding the increase in unemployed, while in DC’s case, the increase in the number unemployed significantly exceeded the growth in its labor force. California’s unemployment rate remains the highest among the states at 5.6%, but the rate for DC is higher still, at 6.2%.  Employment was essentially flat among the states m/m, with only Missouri showing any kind of meaningful incre...

The Connecticut Department of Labor reports that the state’s nonfarm payrolls (SA) declined 5,700 m/m in September 2025. However, September’s total is still 4,500, or 0.3%, higher than the comparable year ago figure. Additionally, the August 2025 employment figure was revised 400 lower, from a m/m increase of 900 to a revised 500 gain. The September m/m decline was led by losses in the trade, finance, and health care sectors. Connecticut's unemployment rate remained unchanged in September at 3.8%.

 The US BEA has announced that the State GDP and Personal Income data for 3Q2025 will be released on January 23, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern time. This release was originally scheduled for December 22, 2025.

Atlas Van Lines has released its annual Migration Patterns Study . The study covers the period from November 1, 2024 to October 31, 2025. Arkansas took the top prize as the state with the largest amount of inbound moves, followed by Idaho, North Carolina, and Hawaii. Conversely, Louisiana recorded the greatest number of outbound moves for the second year in a row, followed by West Virginia, Wyoming and Delaware. The study notes that three of the states that were outbound states in 2024, California, Illinois and New York, moved to the balanced category in 2025. This is possibly the result of constrained mobility due to affordability issues, according to the study. In total, 14 states (with DC) were designated as inbound states, while 10 were designated as outbound states.

The Arkansas Department of Commerce is reporting that the state’s unemployment rate (SA) ticked up to 3.9% in September 2025 compared to 3.8% in August 2025 and 3.5% in September 2024. This is principally due to a 15,000 y/y increase in the labor force that exceeded the 9,000 increase in employment over the same period. On an NSA basis, nonfarm payrolls were up 22,700 y/y in September, almost all of which came from the services sector, and of that, health services accounted for nearly half of the gain. Again, the US BLS is scheduled to release September employment statistics for all states on Thursday, December 11, 2025.

The State of Utah’s Department of Workforce Services is reporting a y/y increase in nonfarm employment of 26,700 (NSA), or 1.5%, in September 2025. Private sector payrolls increased 17,800, or 1.2%, over the same period with the largest private sector payroll gains coming from education and health services and construction. Notably, after education and health services, the government sector accounted for the largest y/y increase in total NFP. The US BLS is scheduled to release September employment statistics for all states on Thursday, December 11, 2025.

The New Jersey Business and Industry Association (NJBIA) released the results of its 67th Annual Business Outlook Survey yesterday. Respondents cited the state’s high energy costs and US tariff policy as significant challenges for New Jersey businesses, with 77% indicating that the increases in energy costs were negatively impacting their businesses, and 49% stating that tariffs were negatively impacting their supply chains. Respondents also pointed to health insurance costs, property taxes, and the lack of available skilled labor as other pressure points. While 26% of respondents expected to increase staffing in 2026, only 16% of respondents thought New Jersey’s economy would improve in the first half of next year, while 44% thought it would get worse.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced some additions to its post-shutdown release schedule. As previously noted on this blog, the State Employment and Unemployment report for September 2025 will be released on December 11, 2025. In addition, the BLS has now scheduled the release of the November 2025 State Employment and Unemployment report for January 7, 2025, and has announced that it will not be releasing an October 2025 report. Finally, the October 2025 State Job Openings and Labor Turnover report will be released on December 30, 2025.

The Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado Boulder released its 61st annual Colorado Business Economic Outlook today. The economists at the Leeds School forecast state real GDP growth of 2.1% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, and are projecting employment growth of 17,500, or 0.6%, in 2026, compared to an estimated 0.5% increase in 2025. A significant portion of the growth in payrolls is expected to come from the health and education sector, followed by the trade sector. The economists note that the state’s labor market is constrained due to slower population growth. They estimate that Colorado will only see a 0.6% increase in population in both 2025 and 2026 because of a low birth rate, an aging population, and declines in both domestic and international net migration. You can read the press release here and the entire 182 page report here .

The Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada Las Vegas is projecting a modest increase in Las Vegas tourism in 2026. After declining an estimated 6% in 2025 to 39.1 million, economists at the Center are forecasting that visitations to the city will increase to 40.1 million in 2026. As a point of comparison, 41.7 people visited the city in 2024. In addition to the concerns about the strength of the US economy, panelists at a UNLV Economic Outlook event expressed concerns over the drop in international tourism. Finally, panelists noted that, in an attempt to diversify its economy, the city is looking to establish itself as a sports mecca with the relocation or establishment of several professional sports teams and events in the city.

Minnesota Management and Budget (MMB) released its semi-annual Budget and Economic Forecast yesterday. The new November forecast reflects a slight downshift from the forecast released in February. The MMB projects “limited employment growth” for the state over the next few years, a consistent but weaker outlook than expressed in the prior report. In February, the MMB projected Minnesota nonfarm payroll growth of 0.6% in 2025 and 0.3% in 2026. The new forecast calls for no payroll growth through 2026 and an average of only 0.3% annual growth from 2027-2029. Similarly, the MMB downgraded its forecast for state personal income growth from 4.3% to 4.2% in 2025 and from 5.5% to 4.2% in 2026, and it projects average annual personal income growth of 4.3% for the 2027-2029 period. The MMB cites an aging population, declining birth rates, and lower levels of immigration as contributing factors to its economic forecast.

A big tip of the hat to the Urban Institute, which today released some terrific research on student loan delinquency rates by state. This link will take you to both the report and a very useful interactive map. Based on its analysis of August 2025 credit reporting data, the Urban Institute reports that approximately 16% of borrowers nationally, or about 6 million, are 60 days or more delinquent on their student loan payments, bringing delinquencies back to their prepandemic levels. The Urban Institute calculates that student loan delinquency rates are the highest in Louisiana (22.6%), Mississippi (22.3%) and Georgia (21.1%), and that the lowest rates are seen in Kentucky (10.1%), Minnesota (10.6%), and North Dakota (10.8%). The interactive Debt in America map is data rich and well worth a look.

There have been a lot of think tank studies over the last few months that have attempted to calculate the economic impact of the Trump administration’s policies on the states. A new report by the Illinois Economic Policy Institute (IEPI) is the most recent one of this genre. The study estimates that by 2029, the administration’s policies will result in a $10 billion reduction in state GDP, an 86,000 decrease in total employment, and a drop in state tax revenues of over $540 million annually. According to the IEPI, the changes to Medicaid will be the largest driver of these declines, accounting for reductions of $4 billion in GDP, 35,000 in employment, and $244,000 in state tax revenues in 2029.

The December 2025 edition of the UCLA Anderson Forecast contains a slight downgrade to its projection of California nonfarm payroll growth, but still reflects the expectation that the state’s economy will gradually begin to improve in late 2026. In its October 2025 release, UCLA Anderson projected that the state’s nonfarm payrolls would decline 0.1% in 2025, increase 0.1% in 2026, and increase 2.2% in 2027. The new December release calls for payroll growth to be flat in 2025, down 0.1% in 2026, and up 1.9% in 2027. It cites the pressure on the construction, nondurable manufacturing, and hospitality and leisure sectors from federal spending, tariff and immigration policies as contributing factors to the state’s sluggish economic outlook.

The most recent State Job Openings and Labor Turnover report from the BLS indicated that the vast majority of states saw little to no change in labor demand and turnover in August 2025. Job opening rates increased modestly in Florida and Illinois while quit rates were down in Idaho Colorado and Indiana, but up in California. Layoff rates were down in Delaware, California and New Jersey, but up in New York and Connecticut. The below chart from the BLS illustrates the range of state job opening rates as of August 2025. In addition to the release of the August data, the BLS announced that it will no longer publish monthly state JOLTS data subsequent to the release of the December 2025 report. Going forward, the state data will only be published annually with the first of these releases scheduled for July 2026.