Old Dominion: Virginia Economy Slowing

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The Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy, part of the Strome College of Business at Old Dominion University released its 11th annual State of the Commonwealth report yesterday. The report is primarily a backward looking, but comprehensive analysis of the state’s economy. It notes that “economic activity has slowed in Virginia”, and forecasts state real GDP growth of 1.5% for 2025, compared to 3.4% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024. The report attributes this slowdown to reductions in federal spending and employment, the impact of tariffs on port activity, and declines in consumer sentiment. While the report doesn’t provide a 2026 forecast, buried on page 36 is this nugget: “prospects for continued growth for Virginia in 2026 are diminished”. You can find a link to the press release here and a link to the full presentation here.

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