State Economic Watch

The 2Q2026 survey from the Iowa Association of Business and Industry reflects rising confidence on the part of the state’s businesses, with 48% of respondents reflecting an optimistic outlook for the economy compared to 37% in the 1Q2026 survey. Similarly, 62% foresee sales expanding in the next quarter, 57% project increased headcount (up substantially from 37% in 1Q2026), and 71% expect to increase capex, with 19% planning significant investment. 

Florida TaxWatch increased its GDP forecast for the state in the latest release of its Florida Economic Forecast . The forecast is produced quarterly in conjunction with the Regional Economic Consulting Group. The current forecast projects real GDP growth of 2.7% for the state in 2026, up measurably from the 2.3% projection in the previous forecast. However, it should be noted that the latest report contains contradictory information. Throughout most of the report, the new state GDP growth estimate is cited as 2.7%, but in the economic forecast summary table, it’s listed as 2.3%. Presumably this exhibit wasn’t updated from the previous report. In any event, the forecast calls for GDP growth to decline to 1.9% by 2032. The current forecast also increases the 2026 daily net migration projection to 895 from 865 in the prior forecast, but downgrades the 2026 tourism visitor growth rate to 1.5% from 2.2% while increasing it for the outyears. Finally, the forecast for total employment has b...

This week, Indiana Governor Mike Braun announced a 10-year, $1 billion initiative to grow the state’s agricultural and life sciences sector. The goal of the new investment program is to generate 100,000 new “high wage” jobs over the next ten years. The program will utilize a tax credit mechanism to distribute the funding. To ensure that the new jobs generated by the program will be high wage, the jobs must pay at least 125% of the corresponding county’s median wage in order to qualify for the credit.

The North Dakota Industrial Commission has authorized the state-owned Bank of North Dakota to increase its allocation to the state’s Farm Financial Stability Program by $100 million, bringing the Program’s total allocation to $500 million. Established last year, the Program is designed to allow farmers and ranchers to restructure their debt at low interest rates and to convert operating losses into loans. North Dakota farmers have been under significant financial pressure due several factors, most notably low crop prices and increased operating costs.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey continued to paint a grim picture of the regional service sector in March. The survey, taken from March 2 through March 9, produced a top line business activity index of -22.6, slightly better than the -25.7 print in February, but still firmly in negative territory. The business climate index fell 4.5 points to -46.2, and the employment index remained negative at -8.5 compared to the prior month’s -9.7. Further, service sector expectations continued to erode in March. The six-month forward business activity expectations index fell to 12.7 from 17.5 in February, as did the business climate expectations index, which fell to -10.6 from -3.9. Additionally, the six-month forward employment index was essentially unchanged in March at 14.9 compared to February’s 15.7. Capex was the only real bright spot, and minimally at that, with its associated forward looking-index increasing 3.8 points to 9.8.

The 65-turbine offshore Revolution Wind project made its initial delivery power to the regional grid last week. The project, located off the coast of Rhode Island, is currently 93% complete and is scheduled to be capable of delivering its total 704 MW nameplate capacity sometime in 2H2026. At full capacity, it is estimated to be able to provide power to 350,000 homes in Rhode Island and Connecticut. A similar project, the 62-turbine Vineyard Wind , saw its final blade installed last Friday.