State Economic Watch

Economists at the University of Michigan believe that the state’s labor economy is currently in a “soft patch”, but that brighter days are ahead. They expect the state's employers to shed 5,900 jobs in calendar 2026, but then add 13,400 in 2027 and 9,300 in 2028. The forecast assumes no further escalation of the conflict in Iran and gradual reductions in the price of oil. According to the press release, the forecast will be presented to Michigan’s Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on May 15.

The Maine State Chamber of Commerce released its Maine Economic Vision 2035 report this week. The report sets out policy prescriptions to grow the state’s economy over the next ten years. These policy goals and proposals are primarily focused on productivity, investment, education, competitiveness and affordability. You can access the glossy 32-page presentation here .

The Northern Economics Alaska Confidence Index , produced quarterly since 2010 by Alaska Survey Research continues to scrape the lows of the COVID era. The index is compiled from responses to six questions about the health of the state’s economy and of respondent’s personal financial situation, and is standardized to a 0-100 scale. The most recent survey in March 2026 produced an index value of 42.6, which is only 0.2 points higher than the index’s historical low set in October 2023. The index has been stuck in the mid-to-low 40s range since late 2021. For context, the index hit a historical high of 61.9 in September 2014.

The latest edition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Nebraska Economist examines Nebraska's healthcare profile. After discussing some of the macro economic and demographic trends facing the overall US healthcare industry, the Kansas City Fed’s economists go into a data-rich analysis of the Nebraska healthcare environment and find that the state has seen dramatic reduction in the number of beds since 2000, particularly in its rural areas. In addition, they note that Nebraska experienced a larger percentage decline in key service offerings from 2000 to 2023 than any other state. The below exhibit is reproduced from the Kansas City Fed’s report.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indexes were mixed in March. According to this morning’s release, the three-month diffusion index fell to 60 in March from 70 in February. However, we note that the February figure was revised up from the originally reported 54. The three-month index has been in this tepid 50-70 range since July 2025. North Dakota and Indiana posted the strongest three-month index gains in March, while Hawaii and Connecticut saw the biggest declines. One notable element in the March report is the movement in the volatile one-month diffusion index. This index increased sharply in March to 74 from a revised 30 in February. To put this into some context, the one-month diffusion index has bounced dramatically from a low of 26 to a high of 90 over the last five months.  The exhibit below is reproduced from the press release.

An interesting article this week in KFF Health News discusses some of the avenues that states are exploring to try to shore up the finances of community and other rural and urban hospitals, many of which are in a state of financial distress because of Medicaid funding cutbacks at the federal level. A basket of aid options including loans, grants and debt forgiveness are being contemplated or implemented by a number of states. You can find a link to the article here .