State Economic Watch

According to a report in the Oregon Capital Chronicle , international arrivals to Portland International Airport fell 21% from 2024 to 2025. However, travelers from  Canada, historically the state’s largest source of international tourism, fell 32% over the same period. Presumably, there was a similar decline in the number of tourists who drove from Canada to Oregon, but that statistic isn’t addressed in the article.

  Governor Patrick Morrisey signed legislation this week to cut West Virginia's personal income tax rate 5%. It was the third such PIT reduction since 2023. The state’s top rate will fall to 4.58% from 4.82%. The tax package will cost approximately $230 million. Prior to the initial 21% rate cut in 2023, the top PIT rate was 6.5%.

Home price appreciation continued to decelerate in January, according to this morning’s release of the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index increased only 0.9% y/y in January, compared to the 1.1% increase posted in December. The National  Index value hit its most recent peak in June 2025 and has been declining since then. According to the press release, the index rose 2.2% in the first six months of the most recent period, and fell 1.3% in the second six months. Meaningful y/y increases continue to be confined to New York, Chicago, Cleveland and Minneapolis, while the largest y/y declines remain concentrated in the southern and southwestern areas. Tampa, Phoenix, Denver, and Dallas each saw y/y declines of 1.5% or greater, while Las Vegas, Miami and Portland posted y/y declines of approximately 1%.

The US Census Bureau is out with its Vintage 2025 county and metro area population estimates. In its analysis, Census found that the majority of US counties experienced slow to negative population growth between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025. It cites negative international migration as the principal cause of this trend. However, for the largest counties (1 million and above), negative net domestic migration was also a key factor. Census figures show a 6.27 per 1,000 reduction in population from negative net domestic migration in those counties, resulting in a growth rate of only 0.3% for the group during the 12 months ending July 1, 2025, compared to a 1.1% rate in 2024. While counties of all sizes generally experienced slower growth in the 2025 period compared to that of 2024, this large county cohort saw the most significant decline. Finally, Census determined that the fastest growing counties were located “along the southeast coast of the United States in Florida, Georgia, South C...

Service sector activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District continues to increase according to the result of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s March Services Survey. The top line services composite index (SA) increased to 15 in March, from 6 in February and 2 in January. It was the fourth consecutive m/m increase in this measure. The employment index moved back into positive territory at 7 from -5 in the prior month, for the first positive print for the employment index since August 2025. Similarly, the hours worked index posted its first positive print since June 2025 at 8 from -1 in February, but the part-time employment index dipped slightly to 3 from 5. The six-month expectations composite index rose modestly to 17 from 13 in February, revenue/sales expectations held steady at 20, while employment expectations index increased to 16 from 3. Finally, capex expectations were a touch higher at 19 compared to 17 in February.

 Interesting article in today's NYT about the current state of Las Vegas tourism. It seems the whales are still showing up, but everybody else, not so much. International tourism is down and at the same time, domestic tourists are being priced out of the market.