State Economic Watch

On Thursday, Indiana Governor Mike Braun signed a bill establishing the Northwest Indiana Stadium Authority “for the purpose of acquiring and financing certain facilities”. The facility in question of course, is a new stadium for the Chicago Bears in Hammond, Indiana. Similar to the financing package put together for the Lucas Oil Stadium development several years ago, the bill authorizes the Authority to issue bonds to finance construction of the stadium. The bonds would be repaid from funds generated by a basket of tourism taxes, event taxes and tax increment revenue. The Bears have not made a final decision yet. A competing site in Arlington Heights, Illinois is also under consideration.

Like results of its Manufacturing Survey, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s February Services Survey indicated that services activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District increased in the month. The top line services composite index (SA) increased to 6 in February from 2 in January, for the third consecutive m/m increase in this measure. The employment index weakened to -5 from -2 in the prior month, but the hours worked and part-time employment indexes improved. The six-month expectations composite index was slightly lower, dropping to 13 from 15 in January, and revenue/sales expectations cooled to 21 from 30, but all three of the employment expectations indexes increased m/m. Finally, capex expectations were a touch higher at 17 compared to 14 in January.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s most recent survey , manufacturing activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District increased in February. The survey’s composite index increased to 5 in February from 0 in both January and December. Almost all of the component indexes (SA) of the survey including production, shipments, and new orders improved m/m, but the employment index fell to -6 in February from 0 in January. However, the average workweek increased slightly from 4 to 6. The six-month expectations indexes all increased measurably in February. The composite expectations index increased to 15 from 7 in January, while the employment index rose to 22 from 3, and the capex index gained 8 points to 13. 

Two very similar reports are circulating this morning which discuss the importance of immigrants to the economies of Ohio and Michigan. Both articles conclude that immigration is necessary to offset normal population declines in these states (either from natural causes or outmigration), generate state tax revenue, satisfy labor demand in selected industries, and maintain staffing in the health care sector. This article from the Ohio Capitol Journal discusses the results of a survey of Ohio economists, while this link to a Michigan Public Radio article explores a recently released report from the Michigan League for Public Policy.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has released another of its state trade profiles . This week’s release focuses on West Virginia. According to the analysis by the Cleveland Fed’s economists, Canada is by far the largest import and export trade partner with West Virginia, accounting for 42% of the state’s imports and 41% of its exports in 2024. Beyond Canada, the state’s principal 2024 import partners included the EU and Japan, each at about 20%. The imports were concentrated in transportation equipment (31%) and machinery (13%). The state’s other significant export destinations included the EU at 19% and China at 9%. Historically, minerals and ores were the dominant export for West Virginia, but that category had declined to only 8.5% by 2024, with chemicals and transportation equipment together accounting for approximately 61% of all exports that year.

This morning’s release of the December 2025 S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices confirms most of the house price data contained in the 4Q2025 FHFA House Price Index report. Nationally, the increase in home prices continues to decelerate, with the S&P Coality Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index increasing only 1.3% y/y in December, compared to the 1.4% increase posted in November. The National Index value hit its most recent peak in July 2025 and has been declining since then.  According to the press release, the increase in calendar year 2025 is the weakest since 2011. There continues to be a significantly wide dispersion in regional market data, with only New York, Chicago, Cleveland and Minneapolis posting any kind of meaningful y/y home price gains in December. The sun belt continues to be where most of the pain exists, as Tampa, Miami, Phoenix, and Dallas posted y/y declines of at least 1.5%. Denver and Portland also posted notable declines. On a m/m basis, almos...