State Economic Watch

A new study by the Arizona State University W.P. Carey School of Business Seidman Research Institute estimates that Major League Baseball’s Cactus League spring training activities contributed $495.8 million to Arizona’s GDP in 2026 and produced $806.9 million in overall economic activity for the state this year. Unfortunately, the Institute doesn’t seem to have released the study to the general public yet. Its website has a similar 2018 study available, but not the 2026 study. All we have at the moment are media reports based on what appears to be a selective distribution of a press release. 

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indexes registered another solid gain in August as the three-month diffusion index increased to 92 from 86 in July. This brings the three-month diffusion index back to a level last seen in April 2026. The indexes increased in 48 states with only Hawaii and Alabama posting index declines over the three-month period. However, the indexes of both of these states actually improved slightly m/m. Seventeen states posted over 1.0% increases over the last three months, led by Nevada and Rhode Island. The exhibit below is reproduced from the press release.

The latest Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicates stable economic activity in the Philadelphia area services sector in September.  The top line firm specific general business activity index rose from -8.2 in August to a just positive +0.3 in September. However, the regional general business activity index dropped to -22 from -10.6 in the prior month. Still, the employment indexes all showed positive movement m/m, with the full time index increasing to +19 from +2.1, and the average workweek moving into positive territory at +8.5 from -13.4 in August. The capex indexes also moved higher in the month. The six-month general forward business activity indexes increased m/m, but the expectations for firm specific activity were stronger at +20.3 than the regional expectations at +2.0.

According to a press release from the office of West Virginia Governor Pat Morrisey, the state’s tourism hit record levels in 2025. Visitor count reached 78.4 million last year, up 1.8% y/y. State officials estimate that tourism’s contribution to the West Virginia economy hit a record $9.4 billion last year. The state’s total nominal GDP was estimated at $109.3 billion in 2025.

A new survey from the Connecticut Business & Industry Association’s Foundation for Economic Growth & Opportunity, points to a degree of pessimism among the state’s businesses. According to the survey results, only 9% of respondents believe the state’s business climate is improving while 38% feel it is declining. Only 1% expect strong growth in Connecticut’s economy over the next twelve months and just 26% expect moderate growth. The high cost of doing business in the state seems to be the principal driver of the downbeat responses. Nevertheless, only 8% of respondents said that they were actively considering moving out of state. 

Another month, another low information State Employment Report . Today’s release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows little change in state employment markets in August. Only four states posted m/m increases in nonfarm payrolls in the month, the largest on a percentage basis being a 0.6% gain in New Mexico. No single sector dominated in New Mexico, but most of the gain was concentrated in construction, health & ed, and government. The remaining 46 states saw no material change in employment. The y/y numbers told a similar story, with eight states posting payroll increases and 42 staying flat. The largest y/y percentage gainers were Louisiana, New Mexico, and South Carolina, all at 1.6%. Louisiana saw gains from construction, while New Mexico benefited from increases in health & ed and government. South Carolina saw gains across almost all of the employment sectors, especially health & ed and leisure & hospitality. The District of Columbia continues to suffer fr...