State Economic Watch

The employment situation in New Mexico isn’t expected to improve anytime soon, according to the new Consensus Estimate from the state’s Consensus Revenue Estimating Group. The forecast calls for annual growth in state nonfarm payrolls of less than 1% through the forecast period (FY31), with employment growth of 0.1% estimated for FY26 compared to 1.2% in the previous forecast (December 2025). The new August forecast attributes this reduction, in part, to cuts in the federal workforce instituted over the past year. However, the out years don’t look much better, with payroll growth of 0.6% projected for FY27 and 0.2% for FY28. Real state GDP growth of 1.9% is forecast for FY26, 1,5% for FY27, and 1.3% for FY28.

Manufacturing activity in New York State eased modestly in September according to today’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The headline general business conditions index fell 13 points m/n to a still positive reading of +7.6. Similarly, both the New orders and shipments indexes fell, but new orders remained positive at +2.0 while shipments moved into negative territory at -3.2.  The employment indexes were firm however, with employee count improving to +10.6 from +9.3 in July, and hours worked increasing 10.1 points m/m to 17.0.  Finally, the six-month forward looking indexes were mostly modestly lower in the September survey, with the general business conditions expectations index falling 3.1 points m/m to a still positive +29. The new orders and shipments expectations indexes were also down modestly but remained firmly in positive territory, while the capex expectations index was a touch lower but essentially unchanged at 14.9. Th...

A report from the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation, leaked by Politico on Saturday, concludes that the economic cost of the threatened relocation of Paramount from California could be quite costly to the state. The report estimates that a full withdrawal of Paramount operations would result in a loss of up to 58,000 jobs and a reduction in total economic output of over $21 billion annually. The relocation threat is the product of the dispute between Paramount-Skydance and a coalition of state attorneys general who are seeking to block its proposed merger with Warner Brothers Discovery.

Non-current mortgages moved lower in July, according to the most recent ICE Mortgage Monitor . The service reported that total non-current mortgages nationally dropped to 3.9% in the month compared to 4.1% in June, with the delinquency falling to 3.4% from 3.6% in the prior month, and foreclosures holding steady at 0.5%. However, both of these figures were higher y/y. Delinquency and foreclosure rates were the highest in the South and Midwest, with Louisiana (8.2%), Mississippi (8.1%), Alabama (6.0%), Indiana (6.0%), and Arkansas (5.6%) comprising the top five. The states with the best performing mortgages in July were concentrated in the West, with Idaho, Montana, Washington, California, and Oregon reporting the lowest non-current rates, all 2.4% or less. The states seeing the greatest y/y increase in non-current rates were Hawaii (28.7%), Colorado (+17.2%), Michigan (+16.4%), Kentucky (+15.8%), and Indiana (+14.1%). New York, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Idaho say y/y declines in thei...

The Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism moved its estimate of the state’s GDP growth lower in its latest quarterly economic report . The Department now estimates  real GDP growth of 1.3% for the state in 2026 compared to the previous quarterly estimate of 1.6%. Additionally, it forecasts growth of 1.6% in 2027 and 1.8% in 2028 and 2029. Actual real GDP growth in 2025 was 2.5%. Non-ag employment growth is projected to be 0.3% for 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, 2028, and 2029. Finally, the Department anticipates an increase in visitor arrivals of 0.9% in 2026 with shorter stays and 4.5% fewer visitor days, but an increase in visitor spend of 2.3%. 

The new Connecticut Consumer Outlook Survey from the CBIA Foundation Economic Growth & Opportunity indicates that most of the state’s residents are under increasing financial pressure. According to the survey results, 50% of Connecticut residents view themselves as worse off financially than a year ago, and only 9% think they are in better shape. Further, 40% expect their financial condition to deteriorate over the next twelve months. As far as the overall Connecticut economy is concerned, 42% think it will be bad or mostly bad over the course of the next year, while 57% expect a recession in the next twelve months. One of the principal drivers of these downbeat figures appears to be the cost of living, as 87% of respondents indicated that the cost of living in the state has risen slightly or significantly over the last year.