State Economic Watch

According to the recently released UCLA Anderson Forecast , its “September 2026 California outlook is slightly weaker than the June forecast, largely because of continued disruption in energy markets”. The Forecast’s authors project continued economic growth for the state, but “inferior employment performance”. They note that the sectors that have driven state payrolls thus far in 2026, notably health care and social services, education and retail, are not expected to continue to support the state’s labor market going forward as “government budget constraints, reductions in federal support for health care and continued deportations are expected to limit hiring in several of those areas”. The authors expect a California weak labor market in 2026, with recovery in 2027 and 2028. They project nonfarm payroll growth of 0.9% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027, 2.2% in 2028.

According to figures released earlier today by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis , personal income in North Dakota fell at a SAAR of -4.2% in 2Q2026. In fact, North Dakota was the only state to see a decline in personal income in the quarter. The next lowest was South Dakota at a SAAR of +1.3%. At the other end of the spectrum was Wisconsin, with a +6.4% increase in personal income in the quarter. The USBEA’s data indicates that North Dakota suffered from a significant drop in farm income in the quarter, which drove its overall personal income growth figure lower. The dividends, interest and rent and transfer payments components for North Dakota both posted increases in 2Q2026, but the net earnings component dropped 9.3% in the quarter. Of this amount, farm earnings fell 75%. In South Dakota, by comparison, farm earnings only fell 31%. A perfect storm of drought, trade wars and high energy and input prices seems to have resulted in a tidal wave of earnings pressure for North Dakota fa...

According to today’s release of 2Q2026 state GDP from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, there was a wide disparity in growth rates across the 50 states. Five states posted negative real GDP growth in the quarter, led by West Virginia (-2.3%) and Wyoming (-1.6%). Three other states, North Dakota, Kansas and Nebraska saw modestly negative GDP growth in the quarter. The bulk of West Virginia’s decline was the result of a significant drop in mining/oil & gas extraction. This sector also dragged down Wyoming and North Dakota’s GDP growth, but both states were also negatively impacted by a drop in transportation and warehousing activity. The agriculture sector pushed Kansas and Nebraska’s growth into negative territory. On the other end of the spectrum, New York led the pack at +4.0%, followed by South Carolina and Delaware (+3.5%), Utah and Minnesota (3.4%) and Georgia (+3.1%). New York, Delaware, and Utah benefited from strong gains in the FIRE sectors, while South Carolina and Minn...

The University of South Carolina and Westinghouse Electric Company announced that they will be partnering on nuclear industry education. According to the press release from the University, the two parties will “create a multidisciplinary nuclear workforce development program to support U.S. fleet deployment of AP1000® plants. The new program will be centered at the USC Molinaroli College of Engineering and Computing’s planned Nuclear Innovation Center”. The interesting twist here is that two Westinghouse AP1000 had been under construction in South Carolina but were cancelled in 2017 after delays and cost overruns. Westinghouse’s current parent company, Brookfield Asset Management, has been in negotiations with the South Carolina Public Service Authority to purchase and restart construction of those two units. Brookfield has until March 2028 to decide whether or not to move forward with the proposed purchase. It should be noted that two AP1000 units in Georgia were fully completed in A...

Continuing the pattern that we have seen in recent months, the Dallas Fed’s September Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey didn’t live up to the example set by its manufacturing counterpart. The top line revenue index tipped into negative territory in September, falling 7.5 points to -0.9. The business conditions indexes did the same, falling from slightly positive in August to slightly negative in September. The general business activity index fell 6 6 points to -1.8, while the company specific outlook fell 6.2 points to -3.2. The only bright spot was the employment index, which increased from +0.8 in August to +4.1 in September. Similarly the part-time employment index inched higher, but the hours worked index moved lower m/m. The six-month forward expectations indexes were generally flat to slightly higher m/m.  

Housing prices moved modestly higher in July according to the latest release of the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices. The National Composite Index (NSA) increased 1.9% y/y in July, compared to the 1.6% annual gain reported in June. However, the press release notes that “home prices continued to decline in real terms in July 2026, marking the 14th consecutive month of real declines”. The largest eastern US metros continue to post the highest y/y growth rates in the 20-City Composite Index, led by Chicago (+6.86%), New York (+5.78%), Cleveland (+4.22%), Miami (+3.53%), and San Francisco (+3.48%).  The West and Sunbelt metros generally continue to post the largest y/y losses. Seattle saw the largest decline at -1.57%, followed by Las Vegas (-1.29%), Denver (-1.09%), Tampa (-0.73%), and Portland (-0.65%).