State Economic Watch

Today’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed little change in manufacturing activity in New York State in early March. Most of the indices drifted lower, but only slightly. The survey’s headline general business conditions index inched into negative territory in March at -0.2 compared to February’s 7.1 reading. The new orders index was little changed m/m, and the shipments index eased to -6.9 from -1.0 in February. On the employment front, the employee index moved slightly higher, while the average workweek moved slightly lower. The six-month expectations indexes generally moved modestly lower m/m, but the overall business conditions expectations index remained positive at 31. The one index bucking the downward drift was capex expectations, which rose to 21.6 from 18.2 in February. The survey was taken by the New York Fed between March 2 and March 9. 

Cargo traffic was down at the Port of Charleston last year, but Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner production helped push South Carolina’s overall exports higher, according to this article from the South Carolina Gazette. The state’s exports totaled $38.5 billion in 2025, up 1.8% y/y, and aerospace exports, which accounted for over $8.1 billion of the total, were 31% higher than in 2024. Boeing delivered 88 Dreamliners in 2025, compared to 51 in the prior year. In contrast, the Port of Charleston’s container exports fell 3.6% y/y, and its vehicle exports declined 8.8%.

The Iowa Business Council’s 2026 Iowa Competitive Dashboard is a slick 14-page report that outlines the economic and social profile of the state. While it is primarily designed to articulate the policy recommendations of the state’s business community, the report contains a number of interesting and illustrative data points associated not only with the state’s economy, but also with its governance, education, health, and other demographic factors. It’s an interesting and quick read.

The Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism is out with its latest quarterly economic report . The Department estimates that the state’s GDP grew at a real rate of 2.5% in 2025, and forecasts growth of 1.7% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, and 1.9% in 2028. Non-ag employment growth is projected to be 0.9% in 2026 and 2027, and 0.8% in 2028 and 2029. Finally, the Department anticipates visitor arrivals, after declining an estimated 0.6% in 2025, will increase 0.8% in 2026 and 0.9% annually 2027-2029. 

A new study from the University of Idaho finds that the agriculture industry continues to be a significant contributor to the state’s GDP. Using 2024 statistics, the study, Economic Contribution of Idaho Agribusiness 2025 , estimates that the agriculture sector had a combined direct and indirect impact on Idaho GDP of $15.8 billion, or 12%, in 2024, and that it generated one out of every nine jobs in the state. While crop, dairy, and livestock production were significant elements, the study found that agricultural processing produced the greatest valued contribution. Finally, the study notes that the economic contribution from the ag sector was significantly greater in Idaho than in any of its neighboring western agricultural states.

Last night the Washington State Senate passed a bill that would create a tax on high income earners. At present,  Washington State is one of the few remaining states without an income tax. The new law would levy a 9.9% income tax, referred to as the “millionaires tax”, on earnings over $1 million. The measure passed the State Senate by a vote of 27-21 and now heads to the Governor for enactment. Coincidentally, or not, former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz announced yesterday that he was relocating to Florida from Washington State.