State Economic Watch

The regional disparities in the US housing market were on display again in two reports released today. The March 2026 S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices reflect not only a slowing national housing market, but also vast differences among major metro areas. The National Composite Index (NSA) increased only 0.7% y/y compared to 0.8% in the prior month, with half of the metros in the 20-City Composite Index posting y/y losses. Seattle saw the largest decline at -2.5%, followed by Denver (-1.95%), Tampa (-1.93%), Dallas (-1.71%), and Phoenix (-1.63%), while Chicago posted the biggest y/y gain at 6.1%, followed by New York at 4% and Cleveland at 3%.  The release of the 1Q2026 House Price Indices (HPI) from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) illustrate a similar pattern. According to the FHFA’s figures, the national Purchase-Only HPI increased 1.7% from March 2025 to March 2026, compared to a 4% increase in the year-earlier period. All regions of the country saw lower y/y HPI ...

Once again, the State Employment Report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics had little in the way of meaningful content. Both Connecticut and Florida continue to struggle with unemployment, as both saw their u-rates tick up m/m in April. These two states also saw the largest y/y u-rate changes, with the unemployment counts increasing for both. However, Connecticut saw a drop in its labor force over the year, while Florida’s labor force grew y/y. On the payroll front, six states saw modest m/m gains in NFP in April. New Mexico had the largest percentage increase thanks to some increases in construction and health and ed employment. Over the year, Nevada posted the largest percentage increase in NFP, while Oregon saw the largest percentage decrease. Nevada’s gains primarily came from professional services and health and ed, while Oregon posted y/y employment declines in every category except health and ed. The below exhibit is reproduced from the BLS release. Source: USBLS

Manufacturing activity in the Third Federal Reserve District has fallen sharply according to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The top line general business activity index fell into negative territory, declining to -0.4 in May compared to +26.7 in April. New orders and shipments also plunged m/m, with the new orders index falling from +33 in April to -1.7 in May, and shipments index declining to +4.9 from +34 in the prior month. The employee count index moved slightly higher m/m, but remained in negative territory at -2.8, while average workweek fell to +1.2 from +7.7. Despite the current gloom, the six-month forward expectations indexes generally improved, with the general business conditions forward index increasing to +53.2 from +40.8 in April. The new orders and shipments forward indexes also improved m/m. On the downside, the employment forward indexes fell, with both the employee count and average workweek expectations i...

Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City don’t think that current high oil prices will encourage more drilling in Oklahoma. In the latest edition of the Oklahoma Economist , the authors note that despite current high spot prices, oil futures prices are below the level that Oklahoma producers need to support any meaningful increase in drilling activity. Additionally, they note that Oklahoma’s energy production is more highly concentrated in natural gas than in oil, and that natural gas prices in the US, unlike those in Europe or Asia, have not risen in response to the Iran conflict.

Last month this blog posted a story about the possible rebirth of the abandoned, partially constructed VC Summer nuclear power plant in South Carolina. After state-owned Santee Cooper and what was then South Carolina Electric and Gas pulled the plug on the project, SCANA, SCE&G’s parent, filed for bankruptcy. Dominion Energy bought SCANA, while NextEra Energy made a failed bid for Santee Cooper. This morning, NextEra announced that it will acquire Dominion in an all-stock deal. The timing is interesting because just last week, the South Carolina Public Service Commission approved a $5 billion 2,200 MW natural gas project to be jointly constructed by Dominion and Santee Cooper. This was subsequent to the December MOU between Santee Cooper and Brookfield Asset Management to potentially restart construction on the Summer facility. Additionally, earlier this month Brookfield established a partnership with The Nuclear Company for the project. While the NextEra-Dominion merger is subje...

While conditions improved modestly in the last month, the New York-Northern New Jersey service sector remained in contraction territory in May, according to the results of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey . The top line business activity index remained in negative territory, but improved to -5.8 in May from -14 in April, while the business climate index sat at a very unfavorable -46.9, only 2.4 points better than in April. The one bright spot in the report was  employment, with the employee count edging into positive territory at 1.9 from -2.4 in April. The six-month forward expectations indices indicated a slight uptick in optimism, with the forward-looking business activity index increasing 7.3 points to 10.2, while the business climate expectations also increased 7.3 but remained in negative territory at -14. The forward-looking employment and capex indexes were flat m/m. Both remained in minimally positive territory.