State Economic Watch

A fond farewell to the monthly state JOLTS report. This morning’s release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics of December 2025 state JOLTS data is the last monthly report that will be issued. Going forward, the state JOLTS data will be released annually, with the first release scheduled for July 2026. That said, the newly released December figures show little movement in the state job markets. Job opening rates fell in six states led by Vermont, New Hampshire, New York and Rhode Island, but were unchanged in 44 states. Hires rates fell in three Northeastern states, New Hampshire, Maine, and Vermont. Nevada was the lone state to see an increase in the hire rate. Layoff and discharge rates were little changed nationwide, decreasing slightly in Idaho and New Jersey, but increasing in Michigan. The below graphic illustrates the range of job opening rates nationally in December. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

As part of his State of the State address, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker is expected to propose a new statewide zoning law called Build Up Illinois Developments , which would limit the zoning control that local governments currently enjoy. The proposal would reduce restrictions on multi-unit housing in areas that are zoned residential, including allowing the construction of “granny flats”, backyard cottages, and above garage apartments. The proposal also includes $250 million in capital funding to support these new housing initiatives. The Governor’s proposal is designed to address the state’s housing shortage. A study by the University of Illinois concluded that the state would need to see 227,000 housing units constructed over the next five years to meet projected demand.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has released another in its series of state trade profiles. The new release focuses on Pennsylvania . The state is a significant net importer with total imports in 2024 of $127.3 billion dwarfing exports of $53.5 billion. Imports have risen substantially since 2020, while exports have remained somewhat flat. The EU accounts for the largest percentage of Pennsylvania imports at 30% as of 2024, with China at 13% and Canada at 11%. Chemicals, principally in the form of pharmaceuticals and medicines accounted for over 32% of all imports, while computer and electronic products made up almost 14% (about half of which came from China). The economists from the Cleveland Fed note that the state’s oil and gas imports have declined significantly since 2008, as Marcellus Shale production developed. Pennsylvania’s largest export markets are the EU and Canada at 28% and 21%, respectively. The export product mix is heavily weighted to chemicals and computer and e...

The February Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates continued modest expansion in manufacturing activity in New York State. The headline general business conditions index remained in modestly positive territory with a diffusion index of 7.1 compared to the 7.7 registered in January. The unfilled orders index showed solid improvement, moving from -8.2 in January to 9.1 in February, while the employment and average workweek diffusion indexes also moved from negative to positive m/m. Outlook indexes also generally improved, with the general business conditions six-month forward index increasing to 34.7 from the prior month’s 30.3. The forward capex and employment indexes also posted gains.

A new report from the Idaho Alliance for a Legal Workforce suggests that the Idaho economy may take a significant hit from a large reduction in foreign-born workers. The authors analyzed the three sectors in the state that are most dependent on immigrant workers, agriculture, dairy, and hospitality, and concluded that a 50% reduction in the immigrant labor pool in these sectors could result in direct and knock-on reduction in state GDP of $5.1 billion.

A new post by the economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City looks at the impact of recent ag sector financial pressures on farmland values. They found that despite the deterioration in farm finances last year, land values in the Tenth District have generally held up well. Farm income was down overall in 2025 and liquidity remained stretched, with 45% of farm borrowers posting current ratios under 1.5. However, the economists found that farmland sales, demand, and land prices in the Tenth District have been fairly strong. Ranchland prices have been particularly resilient, thanks to the strength in cattle prices. The below graphic is reproduced from the Kansas City Fed’s post. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City