State Economic Watch

The Winter 2026 Survey from the Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce organization (WMC) reflects guarded optimism on the part of the state’s employer base. The survey is conducted semi-annually by the WMC. Respondents to the Winter 2026 survey had a middle-of-the-road view of the Wisconsin economy, with 73% describing it as moderate, 19% strong, and 8% weak. The top concerns of respondents, apart from the national economy, were healthcare costs and labor availability. Finally, survey respondents expressed significant support for the current federal tariff policies, with 70% supporting the tariffs. At the same time however, 47% said that the tariffs have had a negative impact on their businesses, while 41% said that they have had no impact. 

The John Locke Foundation has released a study that examines the risk to North Carolina’s agricultural economy, and to the state’s economy more broadly, from a trade war between the US and some of its largest trading partners. The study is authored by North Carolina State University professor Jeffrey Dornman. He estimates that the state’s farmers would lose one-third of their income if retaliatory tariffs were put in place by the major US trading partners, and he estimates that this would result in the loss of approximately 8,000 jobs, primarily in North Carolina’s rural communities. Finally, he concludes that the total economic loss to the state from retaliatory tariffs would result in a 2% hit to North Carolina’s GDP. The full 36-page study is available on the Foundation’s web site .

An article making its way around the wires this morning discusses the results of a recent state-by-state study of 2025 rent increases. This link is from Stateline . The Premier Timber Frame Builders company used data from the Zillow Observed Rent Index to calculate the average rent increase in each state from 2024 to 2025. Based on this analysis, West Virginia saw the largest increase at 6.04%, followed by a cluster of Midwestern states including Minnesota, Missouri, and Illinois. Florida recorded the smallest increase at 1.24%. The below graphic is reproduced from the Stateline article.

The 4Q2025 quarter survey by the Florida Council of 100 reflects increased optimism on the part of the state’s CEOs. The Council’s headline CEO Economic Outlook Index increased nine points to 100 from the 91 score reported for 3Q2025. The three 6-month forward subindexes, sales, capex, and employment all registered solid q/q gains with the sales component increasing twelve points to 112, the capex component increasing three points to 88, and the employment component increasing 13 points to 100. The survey was conducted in December 2025 and reflects the responses of 105 statewide CEOs.

In the third, and hopefully the last, of these moving company migration studies, United Van Lines names Oregon the top inbound state and New Jersey the top outbound state in its 49th Annual Movers Study . The rankings are based on the number of 2025 United Van Lines moves in or out of a state as a percentage of the total moves for that state. While the United study is similar in nature to the previously reported Atlas and U-Haul studies, it provides a more comprehensive look at US migration patterns. The interactive map in the press release supplies readers with the principal reasons why people moved in or out of a given state, as well as the income and age distributions of those who moved. For example, while New Jersey was cited as the top outmigration state for the eighth consecutive year with 62% outbound in 2025, United Van Lines found that over 25% of the outbound movers were retirees and that over 67% were 55 or older. However, it also found that almost 21% of individuals moving ...

A new analysis from the National Restaurant Association compares current restaurant staffing levels with those of the pre-Covid period. Utilizing BLS data, the Association found that “employment at eating and drinking establishments” in December 2025 was 1.9% higher than it was in February 2020. However, employment at full service establishments was still 3% below the early 2020 level. On a state-by-state level, the Association found significant disparities in the data. Restaurant employment between 3Q19 and 3Q25 fell in 17 states but significantly increased in a number of others. The states seeing the largest declines were Massachusetts (-3.4%), Illinois (-3.2%), West Virginia (-3.0%), Maryland (-2.9%), and California (-2.8%). Conversely, the five states recording the greatest increases in restaurant employment over that period were Idaho (+19.8%), South Dakota (+18.8%), Utah (+14.7%), Nevada (+13.6%), and Montana (+12.2%).  The exhibit is reproduced from the Association's web s...