State Economic Watch

The Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism is out with its latest quarterly economic report . The Department estimates that the state’s GDP grew at a real rate of 2.5% in 2025, and forecasts growth of 1.7% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, and 1.9% in 2028. Non-ag employment growth is projected to be 0.9% in 2026 and 2027, and 0.8% in 2028 and 2029. Finally, the Department anticipates visitor arrivals, after declining an estimated 0.6% in 2025, will increase 0.8% in 2026 and 0.9% annually 2027-2029. 

A new study from the University of Idaho finds that the agriculture industry continues to be a significant contributor to the state’s GDP. Using 2024 statistics, the study, Economic Contribution of Idaho Agribusiness 2025 , estimates that the agriculture sector had a combined direct and indirect impact on Idaho GDP of $15.8 billion, or 12%, in 2024, and that it generated one out of every nine jobs in the state. While crop, dairy, and livestock production were significant elements, the study found that agricultural processing produced the greatest valued contribution. Finally, the study notes that the economic contribution from the ag sector was significantly greater in Idaho than in any of its neighboring western agricultural states.

Last night the Washington State Senate passed a bill that would create a tax on high income earners. At present,  Washington State is one of the few remaining states without an income tax. The new law would levy a 9.9% income tax, referred to as the “millionaires tax”, on earnings over $1 million. The measure passed the State Senate by a vote of 27-21 and now heads to the Governor for enactment. Coincidentally, or not, former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz announced yesterday that he was relocating to Florida from Washington State.

A new report from the NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service paints a grim picture of the current condition of the US Gulf shrimp industry. A surge in imports of cheap foreign farmed shrimp have driven prices significantly lower, while operating costs for US shrimpers, particularly fuel, have increased. The report notes that Gulf shrimp prices fell from over $6/pound in the early 1980s, to under $2/pound in 2023 ($2023). As a result, NOAA estimates that between 2021 and 2023, revenue for the US shrimp harvesting industry declined over $268 million, the active fleet count fell 19%, and employment declined by over 1,200 jobs. The report suggests that the only way for the Gulf shrimp industry to compete is via product differentiation rather than head-to-head price competition.

In the City of Chicago As the evening shadows fall There are people dreaming  Of the hills of Donegal That’s the chorus of a wonderful Irish ballad by Christy Moore called “The City of Chicago”. And according to the US Census Bureau, there’s a lot of truth to the song. Just in time for St. Patrick’s Day, Census has published its list of the US counties with the largest Irish-American populations. At the top of the list - Cook County, Illinois! Happy St. Patrick’s Day everyone! ☘️

Exxon announced today that it’s pulling the plug on New Jersey for good. The company’s Board recommended moving its legal domicile to Texas in a proxy filing today. Exxon has been domiciled in New Jersey for over 100 years, but a significant portion of the company’s operations and employees are now located in Texas.