State Economic Watch

Nevada’s population continues to grow, but most of that growth is driven by retirees and other childless households. This factor, combined with a significant drop in the state’s birth rate, is creating an “enrollment cliff” in its public school system in which current high school graduating classes are substantially larger than incoming kindergarten enrollment. According to the US Census Bureau, Nevada’s population increased by 176,595 between 2020 and 2025. However, its public school enrollment fell by almost 30,000 over that same period. Some of this decline is driven by a reported 17.2% decline in the state’s birth rate between 2011 and 2023.

South Dakota Governor Larry Rhoden has signed legislation that requires data centers with peak electric demand of 10 MW or greater to “ensure their water use does not overburden local resources”.  It also calls for these data centers to fund the electrical infrastructure costs associated with their facilities. Importantly, the legislation prohibits the state from “overriding local ordinances limiting, prohibiting or otherwise regulating data centers”.

Southern Nevada tourism was down 7.5% in 2025. Visitations by Canadian tourists fell 20% and airline capacity between Canada and Las Vegas decreased 35%. But that was 2025. Now, the spike in gas prices and growing air travel difficulties are raising concern over 2026 Las Vegas tourism. This article from the Nevada Current explains.

The 2Q2026 survey from the Iowa Association of Business and Industry reflects rising confidence on the part of the state’s businesses, with 48% of respondents reflecting an optimistic outlook for the economy compared to 37% in the 1Q2026 survey. Similarly, 62% foresee sales expanding in the next quarter, 57% project increased headcount (up substantially from 37% in 1Q2026), and 71% expect to increase capex, with 19% planning significant investment. 

Florida TaxWatch increased its GDP forecast for the state in the latest release of its Florida Economic Forecast . The forecast is produced quarterly in conjunction with the Regional Economic Consulting Group. The current forecast projects real GDP growth of 2.7% for the state in 2026, up measurably from the 2.3% projection in the previous forecast. However, it should be noted that the latest report contains contradictory information. Throughout most of the report, the new state GDP growth estimate is cited as 2.7%, but in the economic forecast summary table, it’s listed as 2.3%. Presumably this exhibit wasn’t updated from the previous report. In any event, the forecast calls for GDP growth to decline to 1.9% by 2032. The current forecast also increases the 2026 daily net migration projection to 895 from 865 in the prior forecast, but downgrades the 2026 tourism visitor growth rate to 1.5% from 2.2% while increasing it for the outyears. Finally, the forecast for total employment has b...

This week, Indiana Governor Mike Braun announced a 10-year, $1 billion initiative to grow the state’s agricultural and life sciences sector. The goal of the new investment program is to generate 100,000 new “high wage” jobs over the next ten years. The program will utilize a tax credit mechanism to distribute the funding. To ensure that the new jobs generated by the program will be high wage, the jobs must pay at least 125% of the corresponding county’s median wage in order to qualify for the credit.