Georgia: Continued Slow Growth in 2026

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The Selig Center for Economic Growth, part of the Terry College of Business at the University of Georgia, released a cautionary forecast for the Georgia economy in 2026. Its baseline forecast calls for real GPD growth of 1.5% for the state next year, compared to the estimated 1.4% in 2025, and for nonfarm payroll growth of 0.5%, equal to that of 2025. It also forecasts an increase in the state’s unemployment rate to 4.1% from an estimated 3.6% in 2025. Here’s the key sentence from the Center’s Georgia Outlook 2026 : “In short, Georgia’s economy will struggle, and it would not take much to tip it into recession”. 


Some of the factors cited for this rather dismal forecast include a reduced level of economic development projects, negative net international migration and flat domestic net migration, a slowdown in global trade, and weakness in the state’s real estate market. On the plus side, the Center notes that the state will benefit from increased federal homeland security and military spending and a growing data center industry. The combination of these factors will, the Center estimates, have a dampening effect on not only employment, but also on personal income and housing starts, with nominal personal income projected to increase 4.5% y/y and permits projected to fall 2.2% in 2026. As we have seen with other state forecasts, the health and education sector is expected to see the largest payroll gains in 2026, with 2.7% y/y growth expected. Conversely, the Center projects declines in construction, information services, and leisure and hospitality employment next year.


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