New Mexico: December Economic Forecast a Touch Better but Still Weak

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The December General Fund Consensus Estimate from the New Mexico Legislative Finance Committee (LFC) reflects a slight improvement to the state’s economic forecast compared to the figures in the August Forecast, but the figures still indicate expectations of slow economic growth for the state over the next few years. The LFC economists generally expect the state’s economy to grow at a slower pace than that of the US, as projections of moderate oil and gas prices are anticipated to be a drag on the state’s economy.  The December forecast calls for New Mexico real GDP growth of 1.7% in FY26, 2.0% in FY27, and 1.7% in FY28, compared to the 1.3%, 1.9%, and 1.6% estimates in the August forecast. Similarly, the outlook for employment growth has improved minimally in the out years from the August forecast of 0.6% NFP growth in FY26, 0.2% in FY27, and 0.2% in FY28, to a revised December forecast of 0.5% in FY26, 0.6% in FY27, and 0.4% in FY28.

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