Univ Tennessee: State to See Slow Economic Growth in 2026

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The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, part of the Haslam College of Business at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, is out with its 2026 Economic Report to the Governor. Produced annually for the last 50 years, the report is a comprehensive look at both the state and national economy. In the latest edition, the Boyd Center economists project continued slow growth for Tennessee’s economy in 2026, with real GDP growth of 2.0% expected after an estimated 1.7% gain in 2025. State nonfarm payrolls are forecast to grow by only 0.9% in 2026, only slightly better than the meager 0.7% growth estimated for 2025. The report points to an aging population, increased retirements, and federal immigration policies as factors that could constrain payroll growth going forward. The Boyd Center’s long term forecast calls for state real GDP growth of 2.5% to 2.6% and real NFP growth of 1.1% to 1.3% from 2027-2030, with growth rates for both measures moderating somewhat in the post-2030 period.

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