Empire: Current Conditions Tick Lower, But Optimism Increases

-

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s December Empire State Manufacturing Survey reflects a modest drop in current business activity in New York State, but also a solid uptick in future expectations. The Survey’s general business conditions index fell for the first time in three months, dropping 23 points to -3.9. Most of the component indexes such as shipments and new orders moved lower m/m, but the employment index ticked up 0.7 points to 7.3 in December, and the prices paid index receded to 37.6 from 49 in November. The forward looking indexes however, showed an increased level of optimism on the part of New York State businesses, with the six month future business conditions index increasing 17 points to 35.7, its highest level since January 2025. Additionally, the future orders and future shipments indexes both hit 2025 highs. The expectations indexes for headcount and capital expenditures six months out remained in positive territory, but were down slightly from the November read. 


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Philly Fed State Coincident Indexes Solidly in the Green

-
The Philadelphia Fed released its August 2025 State Coincident Indexes today. The August statistics indicate continued economic growth across the majority of the states, with 44 of the 50 states posting index value increases over the prior three months. While five states posted declines, Maryland saw the largest drop with a three-month decrease of 0.6% in its index. This is possibly  the result of an increase in Maryland’s unemployment rate to 3.6% in August from 3.3% in June, and a modest decrease in manufacturing payrolls of 1,500 over the same period.
Read more

This Week’s State Economic Releases

-
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is scheduled to release its August 2025 State Coincident Indexes this Wednesday, September 24. In last month’s release, the Philadelphia Fed reported that over the three month period ending July 2025, these economic indexes had increased in 41 states, decreased in eight, and remained unchanged in one . On Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its annual update of state gross domestic product, personal income, and personal consumption expenditures. In this annual exercise, the BEA typically looks back five years. In last year’s update report, the revisions to these three economic statistics were very modest. It should be noted that Friday’s report will contain both the annual revisions and new estimates of state gross domestic product, personal income, and personal consumption expenditures. This will be the first time that the BEA will be reporting all three of these indicators in one unified release. 
Read more

August State Employment Statistics Largely Unchanged

-
There wasn’t anything particularly notable in the August 2025 state employment report. The BLS reported on Friday that state unemployment rates were largely stable, with rates remaining unchanged in 45 states m/m. South Dakota enjoyed the lowest unemployment rate in August at 1.9%, while the District of Columbia had the highest rate at 6%, followed by California at 5.5%. The story was much the same on the employment front, with nonfarm payrolls unchanged m/m in 49 states. Utah saw the largest m/m percentage increase in payrolls at 0.5%, driven in large measure by gains in government employment, while the District of Columbia experienced the largest percentage decrease at (0.7%). This drop was principally the result of declines in government, education, and business services payrolls. On a y/y basis, 20 states reported gains in payrolls while employment levels in 30 states were essentially unchanged. South Carolina saw the largest y/y percentage increase at 3.1% with the business servic...
Read more