UCLA Anderson Ticks NFP Forecast Lower

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The December 2025 edition of the UCLA Anderson Forecast contains a slight downgrade to its projection of California nonfarm payroll growth, but still reflects the expectation that the state’s economy will gradually begin to improve in late 2026. In its October 2025 release, UCLA Anderson projected that the state’s nonfarm payrolls would decline 0.1% in 2025, increase 0.1% in 2026, and increase 2.2% in 2027. The new December release calls for payroll growth to be flat in 2025, down 0.1% in 2026, and up 1.9% in 2027. It cites the pressure on the construction, nondurable manufacturing, and hospitality and leisure sectors from federal spending, tariff and immigration policies as contributing factors to the state’s sluggish economic outlook.

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