New York Fed Services Indexes Take Another Leg Down

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Conditions in the New York-Northern New Jersey service sector continued to deteriorate in October according to the results of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The top line business activity index moved further into negative territory this month, dropping 12 points to -20.7 in October from -8.7 in September and +0.5 in August. The business climate index, which was already firmly in negative territory, was essentially unchanged in October at -35.0. The employee count index was a touch better m/m, moving from -4.9 in September to a neutral 0.0 in October. The six-month forward expectations indices generally moved lower m/m, with the forward-looking business activity index falling into negative territory for the first time since December 2025 at -5.1 in October from +5.0 in September, and the business climate expectations index falling 1.8 points lower to -20.8. The forward-looking capex index also moved negative for the first time since late 2025, falling 4.0 points to -2.9. As noted, the only bright spot was the employment expectations index, which increased 4.5 points to a still somewhat anemic +9.5.

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