State Economic Watch

Home price appreciation continued to decelerate in January, according to this morning’s release of the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index increased only 0.9% y/y in January, compared to the 1.1% increase posted in December. The National  Index value hit its most recent peak in June 2025 and has been declining since then. According to the press release, the index rose 2.2% in the first six months of the most recent period, and fell 1.3% in the second six months. Meaningful y/y increases continue to be confined to New York, Chicago, Cleveland and Minneapolis, while the largest y/y declines remain concentrated in the southern and southwestern areas. Tampa, Phoenix, Denver, and Dallas each saw y/y declines of 1.5% or greater, while Las Vegas, Miami and Portland posted y/y declines of approximately 1%.

The US Census Bureau is out with its Vintage 2025 county and metro area population estimates. In its analysis, Census found that the majority of US counties experienced slow to negative population growth between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025. It cites negative international migration as the principal cause of this trend. However, for the largest counties (1 million and above), negative net domestic migration was also a key factor. Census figures show a 6.27 per 1,000 reduction in population from negative net domestic migration in those counties, resulting in a growth rate of only 0.3% for the group during the 12 months ending July 1, 2025, compared to a 1.1% rate in 2024. While counties of all sizes generally experienced slower growth in the 2025 period compared to that of 2024, this large county cohort saw the most significant decline. Finally, Census determined that the fastest growing counties were located “along the southeast coast of the United States in Florida, Georgia, South C...

Service sector activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District continues to increase according to the result of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s March Services Survey. The top line services composite index (SA) increased to 15 in March, from 6 in February and 2 in January. It was the fourth consecutive m/m increase in this measure. The employment index moved back into positive territory at 7 from -5 in the prior month, for the first positive print for the employment index since August 2025. Similarly, the hours worked index posted its first positive print since June 2025 at 8 from -1 in February, but the part-time employment index dipped slightly to 3 from 5. The six-month expectations composite index rose modestly to 17 from 13 in February, revenue/sales expectations held steady at 20, while employment expectations index increased to 16 from 3. Finally, capex expectations were a touch higher at 19 compared to 17 in February.

 Interesting article in today's NYT about the current state of Las Vegas tourism. It seems the whales are still showing up, but everybody else, not so much. International tourism is down and at the same time, domestic tourists are being priced out of the market. 

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s March Manufacturing Survey indicates continued moderate growth in manufacturing activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District. The survey’s composite index increased to 11 in March from 5 in February and 0 in both January and December. Almost all of the component indexes (SA) of the survey improved m/m, but the new orders for export index fell to -4 in March from 0 in February. Notably, the employment index increased to 7 from -6 in the prior month. The six-month expectations indexes were mixed in March, with the composite expectations index increasing marginally to 16 from 15 in February, while the employment, capex, and new orders for export indices all fell m/m.

Nevada’s population continues to grow, but most of that growth is driven by retirees and other childless households. This factor, combined with a significant drop in the state’s birth rate, is creating an “enrollment cliff” in its public school system in which current high school graduating classes are substantially larger than incoming kindergarten enrollment. According to the US Census Bureau, Nevada’s population increased by 176,595 between 2020 and 2025. However, its public school enrollment fell by almost 30,000 over that same period. Some of this decline is driven by a reported 17.2% decline in the state’s birth rate between 2011 and 2023.

South Dakota Governor Larry Rhoden has signed legislation that requires data centers with peak electric demand of 10 MW or greater to “ensure their water use does not overburden local resources”.  It also calls for these data centers to fund the electrical infrastructure costs associated with their facilities. Importantly, the legislation prohibits the state from “overriding local ordinances limiting, prohibiting or otherwise regulating data centers”.

Southern Nevada tourism was down 7.5% in 2025. Visitations by Canadian tourists fell 20% and airline capacity between Canada and Las Vegas decreased 35%. But that was 2025. Now, the spike in gas prices and growing air travel difficulties are raising concern over 2026 Las Vegas tourism. This article from the Nevada Current explains.

The 2Q2026 survey from the Iowa Association of Business and Industry reflects rising confidence on the part of the state’s businesses, with 48% of respondents reflecting an optimistic outlook for the economy compared to 37% in the 1Q2026 survey. Similarly, 62% foresee sales expanding in the next quarter, 57% project increased headcount (up substantially from 37% in 1Q2026), and 71% expect to increase capex, with 19% planning significant investment. 

Florida TaxWatch increased its GDP forecast for the state in the latest release of its Florida Economic Forecast . The forecast is produced quarterly in conjunction with the Regional Economic Consulting Group. The current forecast projects real GDP growth of 2.7% for the state in 2026, up measurably from the 2.3% projection in the previous forecast. However, it should be noted that the latest report contains contradictory information. Throughout most of the report, the new state GDP growth estimate is cited as 2.7%, but in the economic forecast summary table, it’s listed as 2.3%. Presumably this exhibit wasn’t updated from the previous report. In any event, the forecast calls for GDP growth to decline to 1.9% by 2032. The current forecast also increases the 2026 daily net migration projection to 895 from 865 in the prior forecast, but downgrades the 2026 tourism visitor growth rate to 1.5% from 2.2% while increasing it for the outyears. Finally, the forecast for total employment has b...

This week, Indiana Governor Mike Braun announced a 10-year, $1 billion initiative to grow the state’s agricultural and life sciences sector. The goal of the new investment program is to generate 100,000 new “high wage” jobs over the next ten years. The program will utilize a tax credit mechanism to distribute the funding. To ensure that the new jobs generated by the program will be high wage, the jobs must pay at least 125% of the corresponding county’s median wage in order to qualify for the credit.

The North Dakota Industrial Commission has authorized the state-owned Bank of North Dakota to increase its allocation to the state’s Farm Financial Stability Program by $100 million, bringing the Program’s total allocation to $500 million. Established last year, the Program is designed to allow farmers and ranchers to restructure their debt at low interest rates and to convert operating losses into loans. North Dakota farmers have been under significant financial pressure due several factors, most notably low crop prices and increased operating costs.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey continued to paint a grim picture of the regional service sector in March. The survey, taken from March 2 through March 9, produced a top line business activity index of -22.6, slightly better than the -25.7 print in February, but still firmly in negative territory. The business climate index fell 4.5 points to -46.2, and the employment index remained negative at -8.5 compared to the prior month’s -9.7. Further, service sector expectations continued to erode in March. The six-month forward business activity expectations index fell to 12.7 from 17.5 in February, as did the business climate expectations index, which fell to -10.6 from -3.9. Additionally, the six-month forward employment index was essentially unchanged in March at 14.9 compared to February’s 15.7. Capex was the only real bright spot, and minimally at that, with its associated forward looking-index increasing 3.8 points to 9.8.

The 65-turbine offshore Revolution Wind project made its initial delivery power to the regional grid last week. The project, located off the coast of Rhode Island, is currently 93% complete and is scheduled to be capable of delivering its total 704 MW nameplate capacity sometime in 2H2026. At full capacity, it is estimated to be able to provide power to 350,000 homes in Rhode Island and Connecticut. A similar project, the 62-turbine Vineyard Wind , saw its final blade installed last Friday.

Anyone who has given even passing attention to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics employment reports in recent years knows that the education and healthcare sector has been a significant driver of employment growth nationally. A report released yesterday by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli found that, at least in New York State, this is definitely the case. According to the report, 85% of all jobs in the state in 2024 were in the services sector, while over 20% of all payrolls were in healthcare, and another 10% in education. Additionally, the report finds that employment in healthcare and social assistance increased over 63% from 2000 to 2024.

Alcoa has begun demolishing the last of the big Northwest aluminum smelters. The Intalco plant in Washington State was opened in 1966. It was the last of the region's ten aluminum smelters to open. The industry established itself in the Northwest in the 1940s to take advantage of cheap Columbia River hydro power. As that advantage eroded, these high energy consumption plants became uneconomic. Some of the abandoned sites are being repurposed, or are proposed to be repurposed, as data centers, energy storage facilities, or clean energy production facilities, although environmental cleanup remains a consideration. This article from the Oregon Capital Chronicle discusses the situation in some detail.

Today’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed little change in manufacturing activity in New York State in early March. Most of the indices drifted lower, but only slightly. The survey’s headline general business conditions index inched into negative territory in March at -0.2 compared to February’s 7.1 reading. The new orders index was little changed m/m, and the shipments index eased to -6.9 from -1.0 in February. On the employment front, the employee index moved slightly higher, while the average workweek moved slightly lower. The six-month expectations indexes generally moved modestly lower m/m, but the overall business conditions expectations index remained positive at 31. The one index bucking the downward drift was capex expectations, which rose to 21.6 from 18.2 in February. The survey was taken by the New York Fed between March 2 and March 9. 

Cargo traffic was down at the Port of Charleston last year, but Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner production helped push South Carolina’s overall exports higher, according to this article from the South Carolina Gazette. The state’s exports totaled $38.5 billion in 2025, up 1.8% y/y, and aerospace exports, which accounted for over $8.1 billion of the total, were 31% higher than in 2024. Boeing delivered 88 Dreamliners in 2025, compared to 51 in the prior year. In contrast, the Port of Charleston’s container exports fell 3.6% y/y, and its vehicle exports declined 8.8%.

The Iowa Business Council’s 2026 Iowa Competitive Dashboard is a slick 14-page report that outlines the economic and social profile of the state. While it is primarily designed to articulate the policy recommendations of the state’s business community, the report contains a number of interesting and illustrative data points associated not only with the state’s economy, but also with its governance, education, health, and other demographic factors. It’s an interesting and quick read.

The Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism is out with its latest quarterly economic report . The Department estimates that the state’s GDP grew at a real rate of 2.5% in 2025, and forecasts growth of 1.7% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, and 1.9% in 2028. Non-ag employment growth is projected to be 0.9% in 2026 and 2027, and 0.8% in 2028 and 2029. Finally, the Department anticipates visitor arrivals, after declining an estimated 0.6% in 2025, will increase 0.8% in 2026 and 0.9% annually 2027-2029. 

A new study from the University of Idaho finds that the agriculture industry continues to be a significant contributor to the state’s GDP. Using 2024 statistics, the study, Economic Contribution of Idaho Agribusiness 2025 , estimates that the agriculture sector had a combined direct and indirect impact on Idaho GDP of $15.8 billion, or 12%, in 2024, and that it generated one out of every nine jobs in the state. While crop, dairy, and livestock production were significant elements, the study found that agricultural processing produced the greatest valued contribution. Finally, the study notes that the economic contribution from the ag sector was significantly greater in Idaho than in any of its neighboring western agricultural states.

Last night the Washington State Senate passed a bill that would create a tax on high income earners. At present,  Washington State is one of the few remaining states without an income tax. The new law would levy a 9.9% income tax, referred to as the “millionaires tax”, on earnings over $1 million. The measure passed the State Senate by a vote of 27-21 and now heads to the Governor for enactment. Coincidentally, or not, former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz announced yesterday that he was relocating to Florida from Washington State.

A new report from the NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service paints a grim picture of the current condition of the US Gulf shrimp industry. A surge in imports of cheap foreign farmed shrimp have driven prices significantly lower, while operating costs for US shrimpers, particularly fuel, have increased. The report notes that Gulf shrimp prices fell from over $6/pound in the early 1980s, to under $2/pound in 2023 ($2023). As a result, NOAA estimates that between 2021 and 2023, revenue for the US shrimp harvesting industry declined over $268 million, the active fleet count fell 19%, and employment declined by over 1,200 jobs. The report suggests that the only way for the Gulf shrimp industry to compete is via product differentiation rather than head-to-head price competition.

In the City of Chicago As the evening shadows fall There are people dreaming  Of the hills of Donegal That’s the chorus of a wonderful Irish ballad by Christy Moore called “The City of Chicago”. And according to the US Census Bureau, there’s a lot of truth to the song. Just in time for St. Patrick’s Day, Census has published its list of the US counties with the largest Irish-American populations. At the top of the list - Cook County, Illinois! Happy St. Patrick’s Day everyone! ☘️

Exxon announced today that it’s pulling the plug on New Jersey for good. The company’s Board recommended moving its legal domicile to Texas in a proxy filing today. Exxon has been domiciled in New Jersey for over 100 years, but a significant portion of the company’s operations and employees are now located in Texas.

A new study from the West Virginia University Bureau of Business & Economic Research finds that the combined contribution of coal mining and coal-fired power plants contributed $21 billion to the West Virginia economy in 2024. The study, The Economic Impact of Coal and Coal-Fired Power Generation in West Virginia , estimates that the direct economic impact of these activities was $15.5 billion, while the indirect impact was $5.5 billion.  Unfortunately, the only reference material that is available is this press release from the West Virginia Coal Association. A search for the report takes the reader to a 2021 version, but the 2026 version of the West Virginia University analysis doesn’t seem to be available anywhere, leaving us unable to determine how this analysis was conducted.

Delinquency and foreclosure rates were little changed in most states in January according to the most recent Ice Mortgage Monitor . The national rate of total non-current mortgages remained at 4.1% as of January 31, 2026, as early-stage delinquencies declined slightly m/m, while those over 90 days delinquent or in foreclosure increased modestly. January state delinquency rankings were also little changed from those posted in December. The five states with the highest non-current rates remain Louisiana (8.6%), Mississippi (8.5%), Alabama (6.4%), Arkansas (6.1%), and Indiana (5.9%). Idaho, Washington, Montana, Colorado, and California had the lowest non-current rates, all 2.3% or less. The states seeing the greatest y/y increase in non-current rates were Utah (+18.1%), Maryland (+14.7%), Arkansas (+13.7%) , and Arizona (+13.4%). Florida, Hawaii and Vermont all saw y/y declines in their non-current rates.

A new economic analysis puts the Choctaw Nation’s contribution to the Oklahoma economy at over $4.1 billion in 2023. The analysis was performed by Dr. Kyle Dean, formerly of Oklahoma City University. According to this analysis, the Tribe "supported 26,917 Oklahoma jobs, representing $1.653 billion in wages and benefits paid to Oklahomans”. Finally, the study notes that the Tribe’s gaming compact with the state has resulted in payments to the state from the Tribe of over $422 million. As a reference point, Oklahoma's GDP is approximately $276 billion.

In late February, West Virginia Governor Patrick Morrisey signed the West Virginia First Small Business Growth Act into law. The law is designed to incentivise private investment, from what are referred to as “growth funds”, in the state’s small businesses, primarily through the use of tax credits. The legislation defines an “eligible business” as one that has “fewer than 250 employees and has its principal business operations in West Virginia”, and caps the total credits at $15 million per year.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis has released its estimates of the economic impact of outdoor recreation on the states. Utilizing 2024 data, The BEA economists measured “(1) conventional activities such as bicycling, boating, hiking, and hunting; (2) other activities such as gardening and outdoor concerts; and (3) supporting activities such as construction, travel and tourism, local trips, and government expenditures”, and concluded that the outdoor recreation industry contributed 2.4% to US GDP in 2024. At the state level, Hawaii and Alaska enjoyed the greatest percentage contribution from outdoor recreation at 6.1% and 5.3% of GDP, respectively. In the lower 48, Montana posted the highest value added from outdoor recreation at 4.9%, and New York and Delaware the lowest at 1.6% each (DC was 1%). The below exhibit is reproduced from the press release.

Yesterday, this blog featured a new post from the Dallas Fed that discussed the pivot by US battery manufacturers from EV batteries to power storage systems because of sagging EV sales in the US. As if on cue, today's newswires are reporting on the decision by SK Battery America to lay off nearly 1,000, or 37% of its employees, at its plant outside of Atlanta. Key company quote in this AP article : "We are pursuing a range of future customers, including the Battery Energy Storage System arena".

Interesting post from the Dallas Fed Economics team that discusses the impact that the slump in EV auto sales has had on battery production gigafactories. The authors found that the diminished outlook for EV sales growth has led many battery manufacturers to shift their focus from the production of lithium-ion EV batteries to the production of battery energy storage systems. Most of these production facilities are located in the eastern half of the country.

Who knew? A new study from the Radius Sports Group estimates that Wisconsin’s golf industry has a multi-billion impact on the state’s economy. Using data from 2023, Radius estimates that golf has a $3.4 billion direct impact on the state’s economy and a $6.4 billion direct and indirect impact. To put that into context, the most recent estimate by the US Bureau of Economic Research puts the state’s nominal GDP at approximately $478 billion. The glossy eight-page report put out by Radius and the state’s golf industry can be found here .

In another example of the law of unintended consequences, Louisiana crawfish producers are “in dire straits” in the words of one State Representative, because of the shortage of seasonal foreign workers. The US Department of Homeland Security’s restrictions on guest foreign worker visas has reportedly resulted in some of the state’s crawfish processing plants to operate at reduced capacity or to shut down entirely. Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry is pressing the state’s congressional delegation to address the worker shortage issue.

The March 4 edition of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book contained many of the same sentiments expressed in the previous release. Businesses are generally optimistic but rising costs continue to pressure margins.  Seven of the twelve Federal Reserve District banks reported modest improvement in economic activity. Two reported flat economic activity (Boston and St. Louis) and  three noted modest declines (New York, Minneapolis, and San Francisco). One theme that’s consistent across almost all of the Districts is that of the stressed consumer. Low to moderate income consumers are being particularly squeezed by high grocery, energy, and health care costs, with a notable pick-up in requests for food and housing assistance noted in several Districts. One contact in the New York District noted that even higher income consumers were price sensitive and that they “shopped across multiple outlets to find value”. The stress on consumers appears to be bleeding into auto sales, with most...

A new economic report from the University of Virginia's Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service forecasts state GDP growth of only 0.3% in 2026 compared to a 1.5% increase in 2025. The UVA economists see 2026 as an economic trough for the state however, as their forecast calls for state GDP growth of 1.6% in 2027. They also project 10,300 in job losses, or a decline of 0.2%, in 2026, followed by 0.9% growth in 2027. The state’s unemployment rate is projected to increase to 4.4% by 4Q2026, before declining in 2027. The study's authors expect that payroll declines in the government, manufacturing, hospitality, and arts sectors will be partially offset by gains in the healthcare, construction, and transportation sectors in 2026.

Last month, this blog wrote about a report by the Kansas City Fed that noted the surprising strength in agricultural land values, given the weak credit conditions in the farm sector. Now, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is out with a similar study. In its February 2026 AgLetter, the Chicago Fed’s economists found that agricultural land values in the 7th Federal Reserve District increased 6% in 2025, after declining slightly in 2024. At the same time, they found that agricultural credit conditions continued to decline in 2025, with 5.6% of loans “having major or severe repayment problems” in 4Q2025, the highest such figure since 2Q2020, according to the Chicago Fed economists. Of the five states that comprise the 7th district, Wisconsin and Indiana posted the largest agricultural land value increases in 2025.

On Thursday, Indiana Governor Mike Braun signed a bill establishing the Northwest Indiana Stadium Authority “for the purpose of acquiring and financing certain facilities”. The facility in question of course, is a new stadium for the Chicago Bears in Hammond, Indiana. Similar to the financing package put together for the Lucas Oil Stadium development several years ago, the bill authorizes the Authority to issue bonds to finance construction of the stadium. The bonds would be repaid from funds generated by a basket of tourism taxes, event taxes and tax increment revenue. The Bears have not made a final decision yet. A competing site in Arlington Heights, Illinois is also under consideration.

Like results of its Manufacturing Survey, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s February Services Survey indicated that services activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District increased in the month. The top line services composite index (SA) increased to 6 in February from 2 in January, for the third consecutive m/m increase in this measure. The employment index weakened to -5 from -2 in the prior month, but the hours worked and part-time employment indexes improved. The six-month expectations composite index was slightly lower, dropping to 13 from 15 in January, and revenue/sales expectations cooled to 21 from 30, but all three of the employment expectations indexes increased m/m. Finally, capex expectations were a touch higher at 17 compared to 14 in January.