New York Fed Services Indexes Move Lower in September

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Conditions in the New York-Northern New Jersey service sector appear to have weakened in September according to the results of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. After being briefly above zero during the summer, the top line business activity index returned to negative territory, dropping to -8.7 in September from +0.5 in August. Similarly, the business climate index declined 10.2 points m/m to a pessimistic -35.9. It should be noted that the business climate index hasn’t been in positive territory since 2021. Employee count also shifted from positive to negative, falling 7.3 points to -4.9 in September, while wages held steady. The six-month forward expectations indices all moved lower m/m, with the forward-looking business activity index falling 4.3 points to +5.0, and the business climate expectations index moving 2.5 points lower to -19.0. The forward-looking employment and capex indexes also declined m/m but remained in positive territory. However, the capex expectations index settled at only +1.1 in September.

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