New Mexico: New Consensus Forecast Projects Slow Employment Growth

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The employment situation in New Mexico isn’t expected to improve anytime soon, according to the new Consensus Estimate from the state’s Consensus Revenue Estimating Group. The forecast calls for annual growth in state nonfarm payrolls of less than 1% through the forecast period (FY31), with employment growth of 0.1% estimated for FY26 compared to 1.2% in the previous forecast (December 2025). The new August forecast attributes this reduction, in part, to cuts in the federal workforce instituted over the past year. However, the out years don’t look much better, with payroll growth of 0.6% projected for FY27 and 0.2% for FY28. Real state GDP growth of 1.9% is forecast for FY26, 1,5% for FY27, and 1.3% for FY28.

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