New Jersey’s “Statistically Significant” Employment Loss in July

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 In the July 2026 State Employment and Unemployment report, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) cited New Jersey as the only state to see a “statistically significant” m/m reduction in nonfarm payrolls in July. The state posted a loss of 25,600 jobs (0.6%) in the month. According to the seasonally adjusted numbers tabulated by the BLS, these losses were concentrated in the Professional and Business Services (-13,400) and Leisure and Hospitality (-7,300) categories. This citation by the BLS has generated the typical press coverage, complete with political spin. 

A look at the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) numbers provides some interesting color, though. The Professional and Business category did in fact post a loss of 14,200 jobs m/m on an NSA basis, providing some support to the argument that the state’s high cost of living is driving out businesses. However, the Leisure and Hospitality sector actually added 1,100 jobs on an NSA basis, thereby supporting the claim that federal immigration policies are negatively impacting employment in the state. While the sector added jobs in the month, it just didn’t add as many as the seasonal adjustment factor was looking for, possibly because those workers were simply unavailable due to the immigration crackdown. Perhaps both arguments have some validity. It’s difficult to say.

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