UCLA Anderson: Top Risk Shifts From Tariffs to Oil

-
The “outlook for California is slightly weaker than it was three months ago” according to the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast. The Forecast projects that California’s “bifurcated economy” will continue to outperform the US in terms of output and income growth, but that this will be principally driven by the AI, aerospace and tech industries, while the other sectors of the state's economy will struggle. The authors note that California’s unemployment rate has been above 5% for 27 months, indicating a challenged labor market, and that the state is disproportionately affected by high energy prices due to its low emissions fuel mix requirement and its significant energy-dependent trade, transportation, and logistics sectors. At the same time, they cite the negative impact of current federal immigration policy on the state’s important construction sector. The Forecast calls for non-farm payroll growth of 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Philly Fed State Coincident Indexes Solidly in the Green

-
The Philadelphia Fed released its August 2025 State Coincident Indexes today. The August statistics indicate continued economic growth across the majority of the states, with 44 of the 50 states posting index value increases over the prior three months. While five states posted declines, Maryland saw the largest drop with a three-month decrease of 0.6% in its index. This is possibly  the result of an increase in Maryland’s unemployment rate to 3.6% in August from 3.3% in June, and a modest decrease in manufacturing payrolls of 1,500 over the same period.
Read more

Census: North Carolina Highest Domestic In-Migration State 2025

-
Image
New figures released by the US Census Bureau put North Carolina at the top of the list for domestic net migration from July 2024 to July 2025. The state saw just over 84,000 domestic residents moving in during that period, followed by Texas with 67,299, and South Carolina with 66,622. Perennial heavyweight Florida was all the way down at number eight on the list with 22,517 move-ins. On the flip side, it’s no surprise that California and New York topped the list of domestic out-migration states with 299,077 and 137,586 resident departures, respectively. Illinois, New Jersey and Massachusetts made up the balance of the top five, but with significantly smaller domestic out-migration numbers.  International net migration fell substantially in the US, declining from 2.7 million in the year ended July 1, 2024 to 1.3 million in the year ending July 1, 2025, a 54% decline. Nevertheless, all of the states saw some international net migration in 2025, with Florida and Texas topping the lis...
Read more

Kentucky CoC: Lack of Skilled Labor and Affordable Housing Key Concerns

-
In the most recent survey of business and nonprofit leaders by the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce, the shortage of skilled labor and the lack of affordable housing were cited as material impediments to growth. Nevertheless, survey respondents remain “cautiously optimistic about the state’s economy” with 44% anticipating revenue growth over the next year. Here’s a link to the press release from the Chamber’s The Bottom Line publication.
Read more