Limited Publishing Schedule

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 Please note that State Economic Watch will be on a limited publishing schedule during the summer months.

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Census: North Carolina Highest Domestic In-Migration State 2025

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New figures released by the US Census Bureau put North Carolina at the top of the list for domestic net migration from July 2024 to July 2025. The state saw just over 84,000 domestic residents moving in during that period, followed by Texas with 67,299, and South Carolina with 66,622. Perennial heavyweight Florida was all the way down at number eight on the list with 22,517 move-ins. On the flip side, it’s no surprise that California and New York topped the list of domestic out-migration states with 299,077 and 137,586 resident departures, respectively. Illinois, New Jersey and Massachusetts made up the balance of the top five, but with significantly smaller domestic out-migration numbers.  International net migration fell substantially in the US, declining from 2.7 million in the year ended July 1, 2024 to 1.3 million in the year ending July 1, 2025, a 54% decline. Nevertheless, all of the states saw some international net migration in 2025, with Florida and Texas topping the lis...
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Philly Manufacturing Index Dips But Remains Solid in September

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Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area expanded in September but at a slower pace than in August according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey . The top line general business activity index fell to 37.8 in September from 47.4 in August. New orders and shipments were essentially unchanged m/m, but the employment indexes declined, with the employee count index falling to 11.8 from 27.9 in the previous month, and the average workweek index dropping to 18 from 26.5. The forward-looking six-month expectations indexes were mixed but strong, with the general business activity index falling to 52.9 from 73.6, while employment expectations indexes moved higher. The capex six-month expectations index fell modestly in September to 37.1 from 48.2. Finally, 68% of respondents estimated that their total production increased in 3Q2026 compared to 2Q2026.
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Univ Tennessee: State to See Slow Economic Growth in 2026

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The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, part of the Haslam College of Business at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, is out with its 2026 Economic Report to the Governor . Produced annually for the last 50 years, the report is a comprehensive look at both the state and national economy. In the latest edition, the Boyd Center economists project continued slow growth for Tennessee’s economy in 2026, with real GDP growth of 2.0% expected after an estimated 1.7% gain in 2025. State nonfarm payrolls are forecast to grow by only 0.9% in 2026, only slightly better than the meager 0.7% growth estimated for 2025. The report points to an aging population, increased retirements, and federal immigration policies as factors that could constrain payroll growth going forward. The Boyd Center’s long term forecast calls for state real GDP growth of 2.5% to 2.6% and real NFP growth of 1.1% to 1.3% from 2027-2030, with growth rates for both measures moderating somewhat in the post-2030...
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