March Philly Fed Stays in Range

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indexes were mixed in March. According to this morning’s release, the three-month diffusion index fell to 60 in March from 70 in February. However, we note that the February figure was revised up from the originally reported 54. The three-month index has been in this tepid 50-70 range since July 2025. North Dakota and Indiana posted the strongest three-month index gains in March, while Hawaii and Connecticut saw the biggest declines. One notable element in the March report is the movement in the volatile one-month diffusion index. This index increased sharply in March to 74 from a revised 30 in February. To put this into some context, the one-month diffusion index has bounced dramatically from a low of 26 to a high of 90 over the last five months.  The exhibit below is reproduced from the press release.

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