Florida TaxWatch: State’s Strong Economic Growth to Moderate

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Florida TaxWatch has released the latest version of its Florida Economic Forecast. The forecast is produced quarterly in conjunction with the Regional Economic Consulting Group. The current forecast projects real GDP growth of 2.3% for the state in 2026, declining to 1.9% by 2034. This is a significant upgrade compared to the prior quarterly forecast, which called for 1.6% real GDP growth in 2026 and 1.2% by 2034. The current forecast also calls for the state’s population to continue to increase, but at a decreasing rate, with the state’s daily net migration rate falling from 922 in 2025 to 702 by 2034. The forecast also projects employment growth of 800,000 from 2026 to 2034, and continued growth in tourism of just over 3% annually.

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