State Economic Watch

The edition of the Beige Book that was released today by the Federal Reserve was sprinkled with more optimistic notes than the previous release. Eight of the twelve Federal Reserve District banks districts reported modest improvement in economic activity and most generally indicated a greater level of optimism on the part of regional businesses. Three reported flat economic activity (Chicago, Minneapolis, and Dallas) and  one noted a modest decline (New York). However, most of the Districts also indicated that affordability is becoming a problematic issue, with low-to-moderate consumers pulling back on their spending while high income consumers continue to spend freely. Several noted that high-end tourism spending continued to be strong at year-end, but that mid-tier attractions and hospitality businesses were experiencing weaker demand. Additionally, some regional banks reported an increase in mortgage and auto loan delinquencies among their lower tier borrowers. Several responde...

The Winter 2026 Survey from the Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce organization (WMC) reflects guarded optimism on the part of the state’s employer base. The survey is conducted semi-annually by the WMC. Respondents to the Winter 2026 survey had a middle-of-the-road view of the Wisconsin economy, with 73% describing it as moderate, 19% strong, and 8% weak. The top concerns of respondents, apart from the national economy, were healthcare costs and labor availability. Finally, survey respondents expressed significant support for the current federal tariff policies, with 70% supporting the tariffs. At the same time however, 47% said that the tariffs have had a negative impact on their businesses, while 41% said that they have had no impact. 

The John Locke Foundation has released a study that examines the risk to North Carolina’s agricultural economy, and to the state’s economy more broadly, from a trade war between the US and some of its largest trading partners. The study is authored by North Carolina State University professor Jeffrey Dornman. He estimates that the state’s farmers would lose one-third of their income if retaliatory tariffs were put in place by the major US trading partners, and he estimates that this would result in the loss of approximately 8,000 jobs, primarily in North Carolina’s rural communities. Finally, he concludes that the total economic loss to the state from retaliatory tariffs would result in a 2% hit to North Carolina’s GDP. The full 36-page study is available on the Foundation’s web site .

An article making its way around the wires this morning discusses the results of a recent state-by-state study of 2025 rent increases. This link is from Stateline . The Premier Timber Frame Builders company used data from the Zillow Observed Rent Index to calculate the average rent increase in each state from 2024 to 2025. Based on this analysis, West Virginia saw the largest increase at 6.04%, followed by a cluster of Midwestern states including Minnesota, Missouri, and Illinois. Florida recorded the smallest increase at 1.24%. The below graphic is reproduced from the Stateline article.

The 4Q2025 quarter survey by the Florida Council of 100 reflects increased optimism on the part of the state’s CEOs. The Council’s headline CEO Economic Outlook Index increased nine points to 100 from the 91 score reported for 3Q2025. The three 6-month forward subindexes, sales, capex, and employment all registered solid q/q gains with the sales component increasing twelve points to 112, the capex component increasing three points to 88, and the employment component increasing 13 points to 100. The survey was conducted in December 2025 and reflects the responses of 105 statewide CEOs.

In the third, and hopefully the last, of these moving company migration studies, United Van Lines names Oregon the top inbound state and New Jersey the top outbound state in its 49th Annual Movers Study . The rankings are based on the number of 2025 United Van Lines moves in or out of a state as a percentage of the total moves for that state. While the United study is similar in nature to the previously reported Atlas and U-Haul studies, it provides a more comprehensive look at US migration patterns. The interactive map in the press release supplies readers with the principal reasons why people moved in or out of a given state, as well as the income and age distributions of those who moved. For example, while New Jersey was cited as the top outmigration state for the eighth consecutive year with 62% outbound in 2025, United Van Lines found that over 25% of the outbound movers were retirees and that over 67% were 55 or older. However, it also found that almost 21% of individuals moving ...

A new analysis from the National Restaurant Association compares current restaurant staffing levels with those of the pre-Covid period. Utilizing BLS data, the Association found that “employment at eating and drinking establishments” in December 2025 was 1.9% higher than it was in February 2020. However, employment at full service establishments was still 3% below the early 2020 level. On a state-by-state level, the Association found significant disparities in the data. Restaurant employment between 3Q19 and 3Q25 fell in 17 states but significantly increased in a number of others. The states seeing the largest declines were Massachusetts (-3.4%), Illinois (-3.2%), West Virginia (-3.0%), Maryland (-2.9%), and California (-2.8%). Conversely, the five states recording the greatest increases in restaurant employment over that period were Idaho (+19.8%), South Dakota (+18.8%), Utah (+14.7%), Nevada (+13.6%), and Montana (+12.2%).  The exhibit is reproduced from the Association's web s...

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its November State Coincident Indexes this morning. The three-month diffusion index fell to 64 from 76 in October and 70 in September, as 40 state indexes increased while eight decreased and two remained unchanged. The one-month diffusion index also fell in November, but the one-month reading is so volatile, it’s hardly worth commenting on. November’s three-month diffusion index of 64 is the lowest since the 62 recorded in September 2024. Of the eight states posting lower indexes, Delaware, Maryland, Montana and West Virginia saw the most significant declines over the last three months, while Hawaii was the only state to see a three-month index increase meaningfully greater than 1.0%. The exhibit below is reproduced from the press release. The next release of State Coincident Indexes is scheduled for January 30, 2026.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland takes a deep dive into the economy of the Fourth Federal Reserve District with the release of its 2026 Fourth District Almanac . The Almanac is a comprehensive look at the economic profile of the Fourth District. Its 86 pages report on demographics, employment, income, and more. It is a very useful research tool and one that is well worth downloading.

Acting Texas State Comptroller Kelly Hancock unveiled the new TexStats Statewide Economic Dashboard earlier today. This interactive tool provides visitors to the site with timely information on state employment, personal income, gross state product, the Texas housing market, and oil and gas production. While this initial version is both informative and user friendly, the Comptroller’s office expects enhancements to the Dashboard to be announced in February.

The Urban Institute has launched an interactive tool on its site to track the rate of homelessness by state over the last ten years. The tool also provides information on bed inventory by state and the reliance on federal assistance to support that inventory. To populate this tool, the Urban Institute uses data from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development. The most recent data available on the Urban Institute’s site is from 2024 and according to this data, New York and Hawaii have the highest rates of homelessness (homeless per 10,000 residents).

University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro believes that the state's economy is in recession. His Current Conditions Index came in at a weak 33 in October 2025, well below the neutral 50. The Index is composed of twelve component indicators and in October, only four of  the twelve were higher y/y, most notably manufacturing hours and wages. While the single family building permit component fell 22% y/y, and both claims and benefits exhaustion figures increased, Lardaro specifically notes the y/y decline in retail sales as a worrisome indicator for the state’s economy.

The Q4 2025 Economic Outlook Survey from the Iowa Business Council (IBC) reflects an increased but still cautious level of optimism on the part of the state’s businesses. The quarterly survey is a measure of the six-month forward expectations of the members of the IBC, and its top line economic index increased to 63.16 in 4Q2025 from 60 in 3Q2025. The increase was principally driven by improved sales expectations, which increased 8.29 points to 65.79. The other two components of the index, capex and employment, were flat q/q. Finally, survey respondents cited an uncertain business climate, staff attrition and retention, and health care costs as the most significant challenges for their businesses going forward. 

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its November 2025 State Employment and Unemployment Report this morning. This report still suffers from some of the statistical noise caused by the government shutdown, as m/m comparisons remain challenged, particularly for the household data. The BLS reported that November payrolls were up y/y in twelve states and down only in the District of Columbia. Unemployment rates were higher y/y in 16 states and lower in eight. South Dakota had the lowest unemployment rate in November 2025 at 2.1%, followed by Hawaii at 2.2%. The highest u-rates were reported in DC (6.5%), California (5.5%) and New Jersey (5.4%). Delaware saw the largest y/y u-rate increase at 4.9% in November compared to 3.6% a year earlier. Delaware’s total NFP was essentially unchanged y/y, while its labor force grew 8,352 and its total unemployed increased by 7,199.  Missouri, South Carolina, and North Carolina recorded the largest percentage gains in payrolls y/y. In Missour...

Last month this blog highlighted the Atlas Van Lines state migration numbers. Now, U-Haul is out with its own set of statistics. The 2025 U-Haul Growth Index lists the states from high to low based on one-way customer transactions. Texas tops the list as the number one in-migration state, while California brings up the rear as the largest out-migration state. One of the most interesting things to look at in any study like this is the movement of the states up and down the ranking scale from year to year. In the current U-Haul study, Oregon was the top mover, rocketing to number 11 from number 34 in the 2024 study. On the flip side, Ohio sank like a stone, moving from 14th place in 2024 to 43rd in 2025. State migration is the product of any number of different factors and it’s impossible to draw any substantive conclusions from these moving company studies. It would have been nice to have seen these migration statistics expressed as a percentage of each state's population, but stat...

Another article/post about the travails of the tourism economy. This one from the Maine Center for Economic Policy focuses on Maine’s border communities. According to the article, during the January through November 2025 period, border crossings from Canada into Maine dropped by approximately 750,000 y/y. This seemingly contributed to a decline in retail sales in these communities, particularly in the hospitality sector. Here’s a link to the piece on the Center’s web site. A quick word of caution. While the Center bills itself as “a nonpartisan  research and policy organization”, readers may find some of the phrasing in the commentary a bit politically charged.

In an article released today, Alaska Business magazine explores the state’s 2026 economic outlook. The economists and business leaders interviewed expressed some concern over the impact of lower oil and gas prices on the state’s dominant energy industry, fearing reductions in production and employment if market prices remain under pressure. Additionally, the state’s heavy reliance on Medicaid represents another avenue of vulnerability for the state’s economy according to these experts, given the changes to the program at the federal level. Finally, while the state’s important tourism industry has faced some headwinds due to the decline in foreign visitors and the economic pressure facing domestic tourists, the interviewees generally expressed cautious optimism about the health of the state’s tourism economy in 2026.

The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index fell to a 2025 low of 47.6 in December from the 49.5 reported in November. It was also the ninth consecutive month that the employment sub-index was in contraction territory with that component falling to 44 from 47.9 in November. Import and export indexes were a touch better in December, but remained below 50. The new orders component fell to 42.9 from 48.3 in the prior month. On a somewhat positive note, the forward six month confidence index ticked slightly higher to a neutral 50.0 from 47.4. Of the nine states comprising the index, only two, Arkansas and Missouri, posted increases in their individual Business Conditions Indexes, with both moving from the high 40s to the mid-to-low 50s. All of the other states in the Creighton survey, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and South Dakota, saw their indexes decline m/m. The indexes of these seven states were all below 50 in December, with Nebraska p...