State Economic Watch

The state migration statistics reported this week by the Census Bureau have raised concerns about the long term vulnerability of the Massachusetts economy. The Census’ 2025 outmigration numbers for the state, combined with a significant reduction in foreign in-migration and federal funding cuts in education and life sciences, is raising some red flags. In addition, a recent poll by the Mass Opportunity Alliance found that “at least 1 in 3 Massachusetts voters say they are either personally considering moving out of the state next year or know someone who is considering leaving”. Boston University professor Mark Williams worries that outmigration “could push the state’s economy into a recession by the third quarter of this year”. One significant area of concern is the age distribution of those leaving. It’s not all retirees fleeing to lower cost states but younger age cohorts leaving the state as well.  

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indexes slipped again in December. The three-month diffusion index fell to 64 from a revised 68 in November. This is the lowest reading for the index since September 2024. Similarly, the volatile one-month diffusion index fell to 30 from a revised 54 in November, bringing the one-month index to its lowest point since June 2024. The most significant three-month declines were seen in West Virginia (down 2.08%) and Delaware (down 1.03%). West Virginia also posted the largest one-month decline, with its index falling 1.14%. On the plus side, Missouri posted the largest three-month index gain with a 1.20% increase in its index, followed by Idaho with a 0.99% improvement. The exhibit below is reproduced from the press release. 

Ontario Premier Doug Ford apparently made an unforced error last week when he encouraged Canadians to vacation in Michigan. During a press briefing he reportedly said “...if you’re ever in the summer and you want to go to a beautiful destination, go visit our friends in Michigan…” His comments created something of a backlash in Canada, including an op-ed piece in the Toronto Star. Michigan is one of a number of border states feeling the effects of a sharp drop in Canadian tourism. Passenger vehicle traffic into Michigan from Canada fell 16% in 2025. Based on the tempest created by Ford’s offhand comments, it seems unlikely that things will improve much in 2026.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s 10th District services index inched up in January. The m/m composite index rose to 2 in January from 1 in December and -6 in November. Most of the sub-index components improved m/m, but the employment measures remained in negative territory. The same was true for the 6-month forward expectations indexes. The composite expectations index increased to 14 in January from 11 in December, while the employment expectations measures were all negative.  The 10th District manufacturing index was flat with the January m/m composite index at 0 compared to the same reading in December and 7 in November. The employment indexes were slightly higher m/m with the employee count moving to 0 in January from -4 in December, and the average workweek index increasing to 4 from 3. The 6-month forward expectation measures were softer however, with the composite expectations index falling to 7 in January from 10 in December. The employment and capex expectation...

The results of the new Idaho Public Policy Survey indicate a sharp reversal in outlook on the part of the state’s residents. In the poll, taken November 8-17, 2025, 42% of the respondents felt that the state’s economic condition would worsen over the next two years, while 25% thought it would improve. This is a considerable change from the previous year’s survey. In that poll, 22% of the respondents said the Idaho economy two years out would be worse and 45% thought it would get better. Despite this 20-point pessimistic swing, the state’s right track/wrong track numbers didn’t change very much y/y. In the November 2025 survey, about 47% of respondents pulled the “right track” lever compared to about 51% in the prior survey, and 38% voted “wrong track” compared to 36.4% in 2024. Housing costs, property taxes, and health care costs appear to be top areas of concern for Idaho residents, based on the survey results.

The Urban Institute is out with another one of its terrific demographic studies. In a brief with the wonderfully Reganesque title of Is Your State Better Off Now Than It Was Fifty Years Ago?, Urban analyzed the change in median household income by state from 1970 to 2023. While 49 of the states saw some growth in inflation-adjusted median household income during this period, West Virginia was an outlier, with the state seeing a reduction in income of 0.5% or $213. Michigan posted the next weakest number, with a constant dollar increase of only $1,948 or 2.9%. Utah topped the chart with a 78% ($40,820) increase in median household income, followed by Colorado with a 67% ($37,145) gain. New Hampshire, California, and Arizona rounded out the top five. The exhibit below is reproduced from the Urban Institute’s brief. While no pronounced pattern is evident from the graphic, the Midwest generally posted weaker median household income growth from 1970 to 2023 than the rest of the country....

New figures released by the US Census Bureau put North Carolina at the top of the list for domestic net migration from July 2024 to July 2025. The state saw just over 84,000 domestic residents moving in during that period, followed by Texas with 67,299, and South Carolina with 66,622. Perennial heavyweight Florida was all the way down at number eight on the list with 22,517 move-ins. On the flip side, it’s no surprise that California and New York topped the list of domestic out-migration states with 299,077 and 137,586 resident departures, respectively. Illinois, New Jersey and Massachusetts made up the balance of the top five, but with significantly smaller domestic out-migration numbers.  International net migration fell substantially in the US, declining from 2.7 million in the year ended July 1, 2024 to 1.3 million in the year ending July 1, 2025, a 54% decline. Nevertheless, all of the states saw some international net migration in 2025, with Florida and Texas topping the lis...

Today’s release of December 2025 state employment statistics from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reflects a fairly stagnant labor market across the country. Payrolls were flat in all 50 states m/m and up in only eight states y/y. Unemployment rates inched up in six states m/m but remained unchanged in 44. Hawaii and South Dakota reported the lowest unemployment rates in December at 2.2%, while the District of Columbia had the highest at 6.7%, followed by California at 5.5% and New Jersey at 5.4%. DC also posted one of the largest y/y u-rate increases and the largest y/y employment decline. Its u-rate increased 1.4% in December 2025, topped only by Delaware, which saw a 1.6% increase in its u-rate. Payrolls fell 4.2% y/y in DC, principally due to declines in government employment. Delaware, on the other hand, enjoyed a modest 5,300 y/y increase in payrolls in payrolls, but a 9,600 increase in its labor force pushed up its unemployment rate. Missouri, North Carolina, and South Caroli...

This morning’s state GDP release was notable for the reported sharp drop in farm income in North Dakota in 3Q2025. This article from News from the States provides a little color on current conditions in the North Dakota ag sector as well as some sobering comments about the outlook for the state’s farmers in 2026.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released state GDP and personal income statistics for 3Q2025 this morning and wide ranges were reported for both data sets. While all 50 states saw GDP growth in the third quarter, the figures ranged from a high of 6.5% for Kansas, to a low of 0.4% for North Dakota. Interestingly enough, these two states were almost mirror images of each other in that the agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting category was the greatest contributor to GDP growth in Kansas, but the largest detractor to growth in North Dakota. The category accounted for 1.97% of the 6.5% total growth in Kansas (durable goods being the other principal contributor at 1.05%). Conversely, this industry group pulled 2.76% from North Dakota’s GDP growth, offsetting the contributions from all of the other industry categories combined.  Kansas also recorded the highest personal income growth in the quarter at 6.3%. Net earnings contributed the most to this growth, accounting for 4.33% o...

In his State of the State speech last week, Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen called his state recession-proof , saying “our economy is broad, led by the industries of agriculture, banking, manufacturing, healthcare, construction, and insurance – we remain a recession-proof state”. Of course, this was an election year state of the state address, so it predictably contained more cheerleading than a run-of-the-mill state of the state speech, but nevertheless, quite a statement.

Robert Buschman, the Georgia State Economist, told lawmakers attending the General Assembly Joint Budget hearings this week that he is forecasting slow growth for the Georgia economy in 2026, as a flat state labor market and continued high inflation risk depressing consumer confidence. He also noted that uncertainty over tariffs represents a risk for trade-heavy states like Georgia. The remarks were given in conjunction with the Assembly’s budget hearings. 

The US Census Bureau released its estimates of 2024 State-to-State Migration Flows today. Not surprisingly, the top in-migration state in 2024 was Florida with an estimated 573,876 transplants, followed by Texas (556,156) and California (406,873). Florida’s top feeder state in 2024 was New York with 50,661 inbound, Texas (45,259) and California (36,194). Interestingly enough, the largest number of transplants to Texas were from California (77,161), and Florida (52,219). Similarly California drew the most from Texas in 2024 (45,447), followed by Arizona (28,174). Only about 16,000 people moved from Florida to California in 2024.

The January 2026 Economic Review and Revenue Forecast Update prepared for the Vermont Emergency Board and Legislative Joint Fiscal Office, calls for continued slow economic growth for the state through 2028. After real GDP growth of an estimated 1.5% in 2025, the consensus forecast projects growth for the state of 1.4% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.5% in 2028. The forecast also calls for essentially flat population and employment growth, with population growth estimated at 0.1% annually through the forecast period, and employment growth of 0.2% in 2026, 0.0% in 2027, and 0.2% in 2028. The state’s unemployment rate is projected to be between 3.3% and 3.5% during the forecast period. The authors point out that Vermont’s total employment is still 2.8% below pre-COVID levels. Finally, the report comments on the drop in Canadian tourism, and notes that the total number of visitors to Vermont from Canada fell 22.5% y/y in 2025 and almost 35% in the border areas.  

New Hampshire economist Brian Gottlob sees the state’s labor market as flat to down in 2026. Gottlob, who is the director of the New Hampshire Employment Security’s Economic and Labor Market Bureau, forecasts a strong overall economy for the state this year, but thinks that the state could be in for possible layoffs in the first half of the year. He cites the fall in job postings since last summer and low consumer confidence, in addition to tariff uncertainty and a significant drop in Canadian tourism as factors driving his forecast.

The Kem Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah released its 2026 Economic Report to the Governor yesterday. The 232 page report is quite comprehensive and addresses almost every aspect of the state’s economy. It projects continued moderate growth for the state, with Utah’s real GDP forecast to increase 2.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, compared to an estimated 2.8% in 2025. Employment is projected to increase 1.5% in 2026, with a significant portion coming from the health and education sectors. Population growth is forecast at 1.3% in 2026, with net migration, which has fallen in recent years, continuing to be a modest contributor. Finally, the report forecasts increases in both oil and coal production, despite a projected decline in the per barrel price of oil. It should be noted however, that the report does project increases in coal prices over the next two years. 

According to Harold Hamm, current oil prices have made drilling in the Bakken uneconomic. He told Bloomberg yesterday that he’s ceasing drilling operations in North Dakota because the “margins are basically gone”. This article cites analysis from BloombergNEF which puts the break-even for Bakken production at about $58/bbl. State Economic Watch will continue to monitor developments in the oil patch, as the knock-on effects of sustained low oil prices on the economies of energy producing states could be significant.

Iowa’s Business Record is out with the results of its annual readership poll. This is the 15th year the publication has conducted this unscientific survey, and this year’s responses are mediocre at best. Of the 61 respondents participating, 31% said the state’s economy would improve slightly in 2026, while 23% said it would regress slightly and 21% thought it would “stay about the same”. Respondents expressed the usual grab bag of concerns such as tariffs, elevated prices, health care and availability of labor, but the overriding worry among participants in this survey was the health of Iowa’s agriculture economy and the resultant pressure on farm income. An interesting feature of this Business Record poll is that respondents’ names and companies are identified along with their comments.

Florida TaxWatch has released the latest version of its Florida Economic Forecast . The forecast is produced quarterly in conjunction with the Regional Economic Consulting Group. The current forecast projects real GDP growth of 2.3% for the state in 2026, declining to 1.9% by 2034. This is a significant upgrade compared to the prior quarterly forecast, which called for 1.6% real GDP growth in 2026 and 1.2% by 2034. The current forecast also calls for the state’s population to continue to increase, but at a decreasing rate, with the state’s daily net migration rate falling from 922 in 2025 to 702 by 2034. The forecast also projects employment growth of 800,000 from 2026 to 2034, and continued growth in tourism of just over 3% annually.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey improved in January, with the top line General Business Conditions Index moving back into positive territory after turning briefly negative in December. January’s +7.7 reading was an 11.4 point improvement over December’s -3.7. New orders and shipments also moved from red to black, with new orders increasing 7.6 points in January to +6.6, and shipments moving up 21.3 points to +16.3. Things weren’t so good for the rank and file however, with the employment index falling from +7.5 in December to -9.0 in January for a m/m decline of 16.5 points. Average workweek also moved from positive to negative, falling to -5.4 in January from +2.5 in December. The expectations indexes were a mixed bag, with most showing little movement. The six-month forward General Business Conditions Index weakened slightly to a still solidly positive 30.3 from 33.5 in December, as more than 50% of respondents still expect improvement over t...

The edition of the Beige Book that was released today by the Federal Reserve was sprinkled with more optimistic notes than the previous release. Eight of the twelve Federal Reserve District banks districts reported modest improvement in economic activity and most generally indicated a greater level of optimism on the part of regional businesses. Three reported flat economic activity (Chicago, Minneapolis, and Dallas) and  one noted a modest decline (New York). However, most of the Districts also indicated that affordability is becoming a problematic issue, with low-to-moderate consumers pulling back on their spending while high income consumers continue to spend freely. Several noted that high-end tourism spending continued to be strong at year-end, but that mid-tier attractions and hospitality businesses were experiencing weaker demand. Additionally, some regional banks reported an increase in mortgage and auto loan delinquencies among their lower tier borrowers. Several responde...

The Winter 2026 Survey from the Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce organization (WMC) reflects guarded optimism on the part of the state’s employer base. The survey is conducted semi-annually by the WMC. Respondents to the Winter 2026 survey had a middle-of-the-road view of the Wisconsin economy, with 73% describing it as moderate, 19% strong, and 8% weak. The top concerns of respondents, apart from the national economy, were healthcare costs and labor availability. Finally, survey respondents expressed significant support for the current federal tariff policies, with 70% supporting the tariffs. At the same time however, 47% said that the tariffs have had a negative impact on their businesses, while 41% said that they have had no impact. 

The John Locke Foundation has released a study that examines the risk to North Carolina’s agricultural economy, and to the state’s economy more broadly, from a trade war between the US and some of its largest trading partners. The study is authored by North Carolina State University professor Jeffrey Dornman. He estimates that the state’s farmers would lose one-third of their income if retaliatory tariffs were put in place by the major US trading partners, and he estimates that this would result in the loss of approximately 8,000 jobs, primarily in North Carolina’s rural communities. Finally, he concludes that the total economic loss to the state from retaliatory tariffs would result in a 2% hit to North Carolina’s GDP. The full 36-page study is available on the Foundation’s web site .

An article making its way around the wires this morning discusses the results of a recent state-by-state study of 2025 rent increases. This link is from Stateline . The Premier Timber Frame Builders company used data from the Zillow Observed Rent Index to calculate the average rent increase in each state from 2024 to 2025. Based on this analysis, West Virginia saw the largest increase at 6.04%, followed by a cluster of Midwestern states including Minnesota, Missouri, and Illinois. Florida recorded the smallest increase at 1.24%. The below graphic is reproduced from the Stateline article.

The 4Q2025 quarter survey by the Florida Council of 100 reflects increased optimism on the part of the state’s CEOs. The Council’s headline CEO Economic Outlook Index increased nine points to 100 from the 91 score reported for 3Q2025. The three 6-month forward subindexes, sales, capex, and employment all registered solid q/q gains with the sales component increasing twelve points to 112, the capex component increasing three points to 88, and the employment component increasing 13 points to 100. The survey was conducted in December 2025 and reflects the responses of 105 statewide CEOs.

In the third, and hopefully the last, of these moving company migration studies, United Van Lines names Oregon the top inbound state and New Jersey the top outbound state in its 49th Annual Movers Study . The rankings are based on the number of 2025 United Van Lines moves in or out of a state as a percentage of the total moves for that state. While the United study is similar in nature to the previously reported Atlas and U-Haul studies, it provides a more comprehensive look at US migration patterns. The interactive map in the press release supplies readers with the principal reasons why people moved in or out of a given state, as well as the income and age distributions of those who moved. For example, while New Jersey was cited as the top outmigration state for the eighth consecutive year with 62% outbound in 2025, United Van Lines found that over 25% of the outbound movers were retirees and that over 67% were 55 or older. However, it also found that almost 21% of individuals moving ...

A new analysis from the National Restaurant Association compares current restaurant staffing levels with those of the pre-Covid period. Utilizing BLS data, the Association found that “employment at eating and drinking establishments” in December 2025 was 1.9% higher than it was in February 2020. However, employment at full service establishments was still 3% below the early 2020 level. On a state-by-state level, the Association found significant disparities in the data. Restaurant employment between 3Q19 and 3Q25 fell in 17 states but significantly increased in a number of others. The states seeing the largest declines were Massachusetts (-3.4%), Illinois (-3.2%), West Virginia (-3.0%), Maryland (-2.9%), and California (-2.8%). Conversely, the five states recording the greatest increases in restaurant employment over that period were Idaho (+19.8%), South Dakota (+18.8%), Utah (+14.7%), Nevada (+13.6%), and Montana (+12.2%).  The exhibit is reproduced from the Association's web s...

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its November State Coincident Indexes this morning. The three-month diffusion index fell to 64 from 76 in October and 70 in September, as 40 state indexes increased while eight decreased and two remained unchanged. The one-month diffusion index also fell in November, but the one-month reading is so volatile, it’s hardly worth commenting on. November’s three-month diffusion index of 64 is the lowest since the 62 recorded in September 2024. Of the eight states posting lower indexes, Delaware, Maryland, Montana and West Virginia saw the most significant declines over the last three months, while Hawaii was the only state to see a three-month index increase meaningfully greater than 1.0%. The exhibit below is reproduced from the press release. The next release of State Coincident Indexes is scheduled for January 30, 2026.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland takes a deep dive into the economy of the Fourth Federal Reserve District with the release of its 2026 Fourth District Almanac . The Almanac is a comprehensive look at the economic profile of the Fourth District. Its 86 pages report on demographics, employment, income, and more. It is a very useful research tool and one that is well worth downloading.

Acting Texas State Comptroller Kelly Hancock unveiled the new TexStats Statewide Economic Dashboard earlier today. This interactive tool provides visitors to the site with timely information on state employment, personal income, gross state product, the Texas housing market, and oil and gas production. While this initial version is both informative and user friendly, the Comptroller’s office expects enhancements to the Dashboard to be announced in February.

The Urban Institute has launched an interactive tool on its site to track the rate of homelessness by state over the last ten years. The tool also provides information on bed inventory by state and the reliance on federal assistance to support that inventory. To populate this tool, the Urban Institute uses data from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development. The most recent data available on the Urban Institute’s site is from 2024 and according to this data, New York and Hawaii have the highest rates of homelessness (homeless per 10,000 residents).

University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro believes that the state's economy is in recession. His Current Conditions Index came in at a weak 33 in October 2025, well below the neutral 50. The Index is composed of twelve component indicators and in October, only four of  the twelve were higher y/y, most notably manufacturing hours and wages. While the single family building permit component fell 22% y/y, and both claims and benefits exhaustion figures increased, Lardaro specifically notes the y/y decline in retail sales as a worrisome indicator for the state’s economy.

The Q4 2025 Economic Outlook Survey from the Iowa Business Council (IBC) reflects an increased but still cautious level of optimism on the part of the state’s businesses. The quarterly survey is a measure of the six-month forward expectations of the members of the IBC, and its top line economic index increased to 63.16 in 4Q2025 from 60 in 3Q2025. The increase was principally driven by improved sales expectations, which increased 8.29 points to 65.79. The other two components of the index, capex and employment, were flat q/q. Finally, survey respondents cited an uncertain business climate, staff attrition and retention, and health care costs as the most significant challenges for their businesses going forward. 

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its November 2025 State Employment and Unemployment Report this morning. This report still suffers from some of the statistical noise caused by the government shutdown, as m/m comparisons remain challenged, particularly for the household data. The BLS reported that November payrolls were up y/y in twelve states and down only in the District of Columbia. Unemployment rates were higher y/y in 16 states and lower in eight. South Dakota had the lowest unemployment rate in November 2025 at 2.1%, followed by Hawaii at 2.2%. The highest u-rates were reported in DC (6.5%), California (5.5%) and New Jersey (5.4%). Delaware saw the largest y/y u-rate increase at 4.9% in November compared to 3.6% a year earlier. Delaware’s total NFP was essentially unchanged y/y, while its labor force grew 8,352 and its total unemployed increased by 7,199.  Missouri, South Carolina, and North Carolina recorded the largest percentage gains in payrolls y/y. In Missour...

Last month this blog highlighted the Atlas Van Lines state migration numbers. Now, U-Haul is out with its own set of statistics. The 2025 U-Haul Growth Index lists the states from high to low based on one-way customer transactions. Texas tops the list as the number one in-migration state, while California brings up the rear as the largest out-migration state. One of the most interesting things to look at in any study like this is the movement of the states up and down the ranking scale from year to year. In the current U-Haul study, Oregon was the top mover, rocketing to number 11 from number 34 in the 2024 study. On the flip side, Ohio sank like a stone, moving from 14th place in 2024 to 43rd in 2025. State migration is the product of any number of different factors and it’s impossible to draw any substantive conclusions from these moving company studies. It would have been nice to have seen these migration statistics expressed as a percentage of each state's population, but stat...

Another article/post about the travails of the tourism economy. This one from the Maine Center for Economic Policy focuses on Maine’s border communities. According to the article, during the January through November 2025 period, border crossings from Canada into Maine dropped by approximately 750,000 y/y. This seemingly contributed to a decline in retail sales in these communities, particularly in the hospitality sector. Here’s a link to the piece on the Center’s web site. A quick word of caution. While the Center bills itself as “a nonpartisan  research and policy organization”, readers may find some of the phrasing in the commentary a bit politically charged.

In an article released today, Alaska Business magazine explores the state’s 2026 economic outlook. The economists and business leaders interviewed expressed some concern over the impact of lower oil and gas prices on the state’s dominant energy industry, fearing reductions in production and employment if market prices remain under pressure. Additionally, the state’s heavy reliance on Medicaid represents another avenue of vulnerability for the state’s economy according to these experts, given the changes to the program at the federal level. Finally, while the state’s important tourism industry has faced some headwinds due to the decline in foreign visitors and the economic pressure facing domestic tourists, the interviewees generally expressed cautious optimism about the health of the state’s tourism economy in 2026.

The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index fell to a 2025 low of 47.6 in December from the 49.5 reported in November. It was also the ninth consecutive month that the employment sub-index was in contraction territory with that component falling to 44 from 47.9 in November. Import and export indexes were a touch better in December, but remained below 50. The new orders component fell to 42.9 from 48.3 in the prior month. On a somewhat positive note, the forward six month confidence index ticked slightly higher to a neutral 50.0 from 47.4. Of the nine states comprising the index, only two, Arkansas and Missouri, posted increases in their individual Business Conditions Indexes, with both moving from the high 40s to the mid-to-low 50s. All of the other states in the Creighton survey, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and South Dakota, saw their indexes decline m/m. The indexes of these seven states were all below 50 in December, with Nebraska p...