January Empire: Slightly Better, But Not For Employees

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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey improved in January, with the top line General Business Conditions Index moving back into positive territory after turning briefly negative in December. January’s +7.7 reading was an 11.4 point improvement over December’s -3.7. New orders and shipments also moved from red to black, with new orders increasing 7.6 points in January to +6.6, and shipments moving up 21.3 points to +16.3. Things weren’t so good for the rank and file however, with the employment index falling from +7.5 in December to -9.0 in January for a m/m decline of 16.5 points. Average workweek also moved from positive to negative, falling to -5.4 in January from +2.5 in December. The expectations indexes were a mixed bag, with most showing little movement. The six-month forward General Business Conditions Index weakened slightly to a still solidly positive 30.3 from 33.5 in December, as more than 50% of respondents still expect improvement over the next six months. Further shimmers of optimism were also reflected in the  employment, workweek, and capital expenditures forward indexes, which all moved modestly higher in January.

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