Vermont: Slow Growth Projected

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The January 2026 Economic Review and Revenue Forecast Update prepared for the Vermont Emergency Board and Legislative Joint Fiscal Office, calls for continued slow economic growth for the state through 2028. After real GDP growth of an estimated 1.5% in 2025, the consensus forecast projects growth for the state of 1.4% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.5% in 2028. The forecast also calls for essentially flat population and employment growth, with population growth estimated at 0.1% annually through the forecast period, and employment growth of 0.2% in 2026, 0.0% in 2027, and 0.2% in 2028. The state’s unemployment rate is projected to be between 3.3% and 3.5% during the forecast period. The authors point out that Vermont’s total employment is still 2.8% below pre-COVID levels. Finally, the report comments on the drop in Canadian tourism, and notes that the total number of visitors to Vermont from Canada fell 22.5% y/y in 2025 and almost 35% in the border areas.  


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