Second Quarter State GDP and Personal Income Largely Higher

-

This morning, the BEA released its estimates for 2Q2025 state GDP and personal income. Real GDP increased in 48 states in 2Q2025 and declined in two. North Dakota experienced the strongest growth in GDP at an annualized rate of 7.3% followed by Texas at 6.8%, both of which posted strong gains in the mining (oil & gas) sector. Real GDP fell in Arkansas (-1.1%) and Mississippi (-0.9%). Declines in the agricultural sector drove most of the GDP drops in those states. Conversely, the agricultural sector contributed significantly to GDP growth in Kansas, which posted the third highest 2Q2025 increase in GDP at 6.7%.


The personal income statistics showed a similar story. Personal income increased in all 50 states in the second quarter. Kansas posted the highest annualized rate of 10.4%, while Arkansas had the lowest at 0.9%, but here again, agriculture was the swing factor. While farm income helped boost the earnings component of personal income in Kansas to 12.2% for the quarter, it was a major factor in the declines in earnings in Arkansas and Mississippi, the only two states to experience a decrease in the earnings component in the second quarter. Finally, it should be noted that the 2Q2025 personal income statistics were somewhat skewed by a sizable increase in the transfer receipts component, which increased 14.4% nationally. This was due to the repeal of the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset in the Social Security Fairness Act of 2024, which resulted in the issuance of retroactive Social Security payments to affected recipients in the quarter. 


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

This Week’s State Economic Releases

-
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is scheduled to release its August 2025 State Coincident Indexes this Wednesday, September 24. In last month’s release, the Philadelphia Fed reported that over the three month period ending July 2025, these economic indexes had increased in 41 states, decreased in eight, and remained unchanged in one . On Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its annual update of state gross domestic product, personal income, and personal consumption expenditures. In this annual exercise, the BEA typically looks back five years. In last year’s update report, the revisions to these three economic statistics were very modest. It should be noted that Friday’s report will contain both the annual revisions and new estimates of state gross domestic product, personal income, and personal consumption expenditures. This will be the first time that the BEA will be reporting all three of these indicators in one unified release. 
Read more

August State Employment Statistics Largely Unchanged

-
There wasn’t anything particularly notable in the August 2025 state employment report. The BLS reported on Friday that state unemployment rates were largely stable, with rates remaining unchanged in 45 states m/m. South Dakota enjoyed the lowest unemployment rate in August at 1.9%, while the District of Columbia had the highest rate at 6%, followed by California at 5.5%. The story was much the same on the employment front, with nonfarm payrolls unchanged m/m in 49 states. Utah saw the largest m/m percentage increase in payrolls at 0.5%, driven in large measure by gains in government employment, while the District of Columbia experienced the largest percentage decrease at (0.7%). This drop was principally the result of declines in government, education, and business services payrolls. On a y/y basis, 20 states reported gains in payrolls while employment levels in 30 states were essentially unchanged. South Carolina saw the largest y/y percentage increase at 3.1% with the business servic...
Read more

Philly Fed State Coincident Indexes Solidly in the Green

-
The Philadelphia Fed released its August 2025 State Coincident Indexes today. The August statistics indicate continued economic growth across the majority of the states, with 44 of the 50 states posting index value increases over the prior three months. While five states posted declines, Maryland saw the largest drop with a three-month decrease of 0.6% in its index. This is possibly  the result of an increase in Maryland’s unemployment rate to 3.6% in August from 3.3% in June, and a modest decrease in manufacturing payrolls of 1,500 over the same period.
Read more