Two Reports Confirm Trend of Regional Housing Weakness

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The regional disparities in the US housing market were on display again in two reports released today. The March 2026 S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices reflect not only a slowing national housing market, but also vast differences among major metro areas. The National Composite Index (NSA) increased only 0.7% y/y compared to 0.8% in the prior month, with half of the metros in the 20-City Composite Index posting y/y losses. Seattle saw the largest decline at -2.5%, followed by Denver (-1.95%), Tampa (-1.93%), Dallas (-1.71%), and Phoenix (-1.63%), while Chicago posted the biggest y/y gain at 6.1%, followed by New York at 4% and Cleveland at 3%. 


The release of the 1Q2026 House Price Indices (HPI) from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) illustrate a similar pattern. According to the FHFA’s figures, the national Purchase-Only HPI increased 1.7% from March 2025 to March 2026, compared to a 4% increase in the year-earlier period. All regions of the country saw lower y/y HPI gains in the first quarter compared to a year ago, but the West South Central posted a y/y decline in HPI, while the Pacific region was flat and the Mountain and South Atlantic regions saw only modest gains. The East North Central and Middle Atlantic regions experienced the strongest y/y gains, but again, they were lower than the year earlier figures. The below exhibit is reproduced from this morning’s FHFA release.  


 






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