Iowa: Study Estimates $231 Million Economic Hit From Weakening Demographics

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In a new report, the group Common Sense Institute Iowa has estimated that the state’s weakening rate of natural population growth and historic domestic outmigration, together with a recent decline in foreign immigration, will result in a reduction in Iowa’s GDP of almost $330 million this year. Using US Census Bureau data, the report analyzes Iowa’s declining trend of net births and its long term trend of domestic outmigration and concludes that the state’s economy is highly dependent on foreign immigration. However, current federal immigration policy has caused a significant decline in foreign immigration to Iowa over the last year, resulting in an estimated $231 million loss of economic activity in 2025. The study projects the potential impact to the state’s GDP to increase to -$329 million in 2026, -$321 in 2027 and -$299 million in 2028.

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