Kansas City Fed: Oklahoma Labor Market Healthy but Cooling

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A new posting from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City analyzes the health of the Oklahoma labor market. Its economists found that the state’s labor market remains healthy, as evidenced by continued low unemployment, but that its hiring dynamics are showing considerable weakness. Oklahoma’s unemployment rate remains below the national average at about 3.6%, but its hiring rate, which has traditionally been above the US average, fell below the US rate in 2H2025. Its hire rate fell from a peak of 5.5% in 2022 to 3.1% in 2H2025. The near term outlook isn’t encouraging with 70% of Oklahoma businesses in a recent KC Fed survey expecting employment to be flat or down in 2026. The firms cited “low growth expectations and economic uncertainty” as the principal reasons for the low pace of hiring.

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