December Case-Shiller Confirms Market Slowdown

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This morning’s release of the December 2025 S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices confirms most of the house price data contained in the 4Q2025 FHFA House Price Index report. Nationally, the increase in home prices continues to decelerate, with the S&P Coality Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index increasing only 1.3% y/y in December, compared to the 1.4% increase posted in November. The National Index value hit its most recent peak in July 2025 and has been declining since then. According to the press release, the increase in calendar year 2025 is the weakest since 2011. There continues to be a significantly wide dispersion in regional market data, with only New York, Chicago, Cleveland and Minneapolis posting any kind of meaningful y/y home price gains in December. The sun belt continues to be where most of the pain exists, as Tampa, Miami, Phoenix, and Dallas posted y/y declines of at least 1.5%. Denver and Portland also posted notable declines. On a m/m basis, almost all of the cities in the 20-City Composite Index posted losses. Prices in New York and Charlotte were flat m/m, while San Diego and Los Angeles posted gains of less than 0.5%.


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