Oregon Economist: State Economy to Improve in 2026

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In the December release of the quarterly Oregon Economic Forecast, state economist Carl Riccadonna projects moderate growth in the state’s economy in 2026 after a modest contraction in 2025. His base case calls for employment growth in 2026 of 0.5% after a decline of -0.3% in 2025, and for state personal income growth of 5.6% compared to 4.3% in 2025. Notably, he assigns a 60% probability to the baseline, which is a three percentage point upgrade from the previous quarterly forecast.  Significant factors underpinning the forecast include stimulus from the federal OBBB Act, continued easing of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the potential for some easing of current US tariffs, particularly those associated with Canada and Mexico.

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