Case-Shiller: Sun Belt Weakness Continues

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The gains in housing prices nationally continued to decelerate in September 2025, with the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Composite Index posting its lowest y/y increase since “mid-2023”. However, the underlying data confirms a continued divergence between the Northeastern and urban Midwestern housing markets and the Sun Belt markets. According to the newly released data, the top markets in terms of y/y home price appreciation were Chicago (5.45%, nsa), New York (5.25%), Boston (4.12%) and Cleveland (4.02%). Conversely, the weakest markets were all in Sun Belt regions with Tampa down -4.14% y/y, Phoenix down -2.02%, Dallas down -1.33%, and Miami down -1.26%. It is notable however, that on a m/m basis, all 20 metro areas tracked by the Case-Shiller Index, registered declines in September 2025. In August, only Chicago registered a slight 0.2% m/m increase.

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