State Economic Watch

Here’s the latest schedule for state economic releases: State JOLTS Report from the BLS: December 2, 2025 September State Employment and Unemployment from the BLS: December 11, 2025 October data will not be published 3Q2025 State GDP and Personal Income from the BEA: Originally due December 22, 2025. A revised date has not been announced November State Coincident Economic Indexes from the Philadelphia Fed: December 31, 2025 Revised publication dates for the September and October Indexes have not been announced. Publication may be cancelled State Population Statistics from the Census Bureau: January 27, 2026 4Q2025 State House Price Indexes from the Federal Housing Finance Agency: February 24, 2026

Economists from the University of Michigan say that while they believe the state’s economy “has hit a growth pause” that will last into 2026, they expect growth to return in 2027. In the recently released Michigan Economic Outlook 2026-2027 , the economists project a loss of 2,000 jobs for the state in 2026, but a gain of 11,300 jobs in 2027. The improvement in 2027 payrolls is based on the projected stimulative effect of enacted tax cuts, anticipated reductions in interest rates, and “a more supportive policy mix”. The report goes into considerable detail about the impact of both federal tariff and trade policy and regulatory changes on the state’s auto industry. It notes that while some of these changes, particularly those around CAFE standards and EV credits, may be beneficial to the industry in the short term, the future direction of these federal policies is uncertain. 

Today’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book really wasn’t worth the wait. The twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported little change in economic activity since the previous publication. Districts reported either slight increases or slight decreases in economic conditions, but on balance, nothing in the way of significant movement one way or the other. Labor markets remained sluggish across all districts and consumer spending continued to be under pressure. Price pressures continued to hurt both businesses and consumers. A few districts noted auto manufacturing difficulties due to supply shortages. Agricultural sectors remained stressed but some producers expressed optimism that crop prices would increase and that trade tensions would moderate.

New quarterly statistics from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) corroborate the regional and national data contained in the most recent Case-Shiller report.  The FHFA House Price Index (HPI) report indicates that the y/y growth in house prices nationally continued to decline in 3Q2025. The national Purchase-Only FHFA HPI (SA, nominal) increased 2.2% y/y in the quarter. The y/y rate of growth in the index has generally been on the decline since its recent peak of 18.2% in 1Q2022. Similar to the Case-Shiller report, the strongest y/y growth in house prices was primarily seen in Northeastern and urban Midwestern markets with Illinois, New York, North Dakota, New Jersey and Connecticut comprising the top five growth rate states. Conversely, Florida, Colorado, Vermont, California, and Arizona saw the weakest y/y growth rates, with all posting declines in their respective HPI indexes.

The gains in housing prices nationally continued to decelerate in September 2025, with the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Composite Index posting its lowest y/y increase since “mid-2023”. However, the underlying data confirms a continued divergence between the Northeastern and urban Midwestern housing markets and the Sun Belt markets. According to the newly released data, the top markets in terms of y/y home price appreciation were Chicago (5.45%, nsa), New York (5.25%), Boston (4.12%) and Cleveland (4.02%). Conversely, the weakest markets were all in Sun Belt regions with Tampa down -4.14% y/y, Phoenix down -2.02%, Dallas down -1.33%, and Miami down -1.26%. It is notable however, that on a m/m basis, all 20 metro areas tracked by the Case-Shiller Index, registered declines in September 2025. In August, only Chicago registered a slight 0.2% m/m increase.

In a new public opinion survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, two-thirds of Oregonians believe that the state’s economy is “pretty seriously off on the wrong track”. The results of the survey are pretty grim, with most respondents pointing to the cost of living, onerous regulatory environment, homelessness, taxes and housing costs as factors influencing their views. To be fair, recent large scale layoffs, primarily from tech companies, are likely having a dampening effect on public opinion, but nevertheless, the fact that the majority of respondents indicated that they would consider relocating to another state for employment opportunities is somewhat striking.

In the December release of the quarterly Oregon Economic Forecast , state economist Carl Riccadonna projects moderate growth in the state’s economy in 2026 after a modest contraction in 2025. His base case calls for employment growth in 2026 of 0.5% after a decline of -0.3% in 2025, and for state personal income growth of 5.6% compared to 4.3% in 2025. Notably, he assigns a 60% probability to the baseline, which is a three percentage point upgrade from the previous quarterly forecast.  Significant factors underpinning the forecast include stimulus from the federal OBBB Act, continued easing of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the potential for some easing of current US tariffs, particularly those associated with Canada and Mexico.

The Minnesota Chamber of Commerce is sounding the alarm over the state’s economy. In its 2026 Business Benchmarks Report subtitled “An Economic Imperative for Growth” , the CoC states that Minnesota’s economy is “no longer keeping pace with the rest of the nation” and cites below average per capita GDP and labor force growth, an aging population, and negative net domestic migration as the principal causes. It also refers to the state’s regulatory and tax structures as burdensome. While the report doesn’t identify any specific policy prescriptions, it does a fairly thorough job of identifying what the CoC sees as the opportunities and threats for the state’s economy. 

New releases from both the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago tell similar stories about current economic conditions in the ag sector. On balance, farmers, particularly grain producers, continue to struggle financially.  While harvests are strong, prices remain low and farm incomes are down y/y as a result. On a positive note, corn and soybean prices have shown some improvement of late and farmland prices are firming. Additionally, livestock producers appear to be faring better than their grain counterparts due to generally higher prices for those products. Nevertheless, overall low crop prices and high input costs are resulting in slower loan repayment rates and an increase in loan renewals and extensions in both Fed districts, with some ag bankers indicating that they will probably not be able to approve some renewal requests.

State Economic Watch has been on a limited publishing schedule this week. We’ll return to full force next week with a number of key reports scheduled for release.

Excellent research by the US Census Bureau on the economic impact of tribal gaming. Here is the link to the working paper.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the most recent Texas Business Outlook Survey indicates a modest cooling of the Texas economy. Respondents cited uncertainty about tariff and immigration policies as factors. Pricing pressures continue to impact businesses as well. On the positive side, respondents expect higher capital spending due to the incentives in the OBBB. 

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey increased 8 points to 18.7 in November. The new orders and shipment components moved higher as did the capital spending index. Additionally, the employment  indices firmed. However, the future business conditions expectations index fell 11.2 point to 19.1.

In the recent Fort Hayes State University Docking Institute survey , 27.7% felt that the state’s economy was very good or excellent, an improvement over 21.1% who held the same opinion in 2024. However, respondents remain concerned about the national economy, with 59.3% expressing these concerns.

The Zions Bank Consumer Sentiment Index fell 8.4% m/m in October 2025 to 73.4 from 80.1 in September. On a y/y basis however, the index is only down 9.1% thanks to solid increases in November and December 2024, and the decline is more modest than the 24% drop posted by the national University of Michigan survey for the same period. The Zions Bank survey saw erosion in each component index score, but respondents were more pessimistic about the outlook for the US economy than for the Utah economy, with the one-year forward looking sentiment index value coming in at 77 for the US and 96 for Utah. Similarly, respondents put the five-year forward looking index value at 75 for the US and 103 for Utah. At the same time, the state’s residents are increasing their debt. A study by WalletHub lists Utah as one of the states that saw the largest increase in average household debt in 3Q2025.  

On yesterday’s Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Economy Matters podcast, real estate specialist Domonic Purviance broke down the current state of both the national and Southeast housing markets. He noted that inventory is growing and house price growth is slowing thanks, in part, to buyer hesitancy stemming from economic uncertainty. As a result, affordability in the Southeast region is improving. However, he says the results across the region are mixed with markets like Atlanta and Nashville remaining strong, but Florida exhibiting some notable weakness. In particular, Purviance singles out Southwest Florida as a market that is currently in a housing correction, with price declines in the mid-to-high single digits in some places, and identifies the condo market in Southwest Florida as significantly weak, with price declines of 20% seen in some areas. Interestingly, he references a slowdown in domestic migration to the Southeast as a factor thanks, in part, to a narrowing of the affo...

Dr. Michael Pakko, the Chief Economist for the Arkansas Economic Development Institute presented his outlook for the state’s economy at the annual Arkansas Economic Forecast Luncheon last week. In his view, the state’s economy will avoid recession, but will continue to grow at a slow pace over the near term, with payrolls increasing by less than 1% and GDP growing less than 2%. He identified tariffs, the health of the agricultural sector, and weakness in consumer spending as sources of risk and uncertainty for the Arkansas economy.

Indiana University economists identified the non-durables manufacturing sector as a major growth driver for the Indiana economy during the annual Futurecast Business Outlook event. The economists noted that the state’s non-durables sector grew 12% last year and they pointed to pharmaceuticals manufacturers such as Eli Lilly as significant contributors to that growth. While some of the state’s other commercial and industrial sectors are lagging, and its agricultural sector is struggling, Indiana’s economic growth exceeds that of other Midwestern states according to the IU economists.  

The Florida Consumer Sentiment Index administered by the University of Florida Survey Research Center, fell to 78.3 October 2025 from 79.3 in September 2025. This was the fourth consecutive monthly decline in the index since its recent peak of 84.1 in June 2025. However, the October reading is still modestly higher than the year ago comparable figure of 77.4 recorded in October 2024. A good part of the decrease appears to be driven by respondents’ deteriorating opinions on the future trend of the national economy, with one year expectations falling to 82 in October compared to 83.6 in September and 87.4 in October 2024. Worse still was the five-year expectations index for the US economy, which fell to 80 in October 2025 from 90.3 in October 2024. 

The Orlando Orlando Economic Partnership released the results of its Orlando MSA Business Conditions Survey for 3Q2025 last week. The survey incorporates responses from businesses in Orange, Osceola, Seminole and Lake counties. Despite uncertainties relating to the national economy, these businesses generally expressed confidence in their firm’s business prospects over the next three months. Nevertheless, the confidence index fell to 66% in 3Q2025 from 72% in 2Q2025. Similarly, the revenue, profitability, employment and investment forward expectations indexes were all lower q/q. Respondents cited cost pressures as the most pressing concern for their businesses.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s Regional Manufacturing Activity Survey posted some modestly improved numbers in October 2025, but overall activity was still muted. The top line composite manufacturing index improved to -4 in October from -17 in September, with the shipments component moving up firmly to +4 in October from -20 in the prior month. Employment and wages moved up marginally, but the “availability of talent” component fell. While the current local business conditions index improved to -1 from -12, the forward expectations component fell to -5 in October from -1 in September. Still, it’s better than the -10 recorded in October 2024.