Dallas Fed: Texas Service Sector Index Lowest Since July 2020

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas conducts a monthly Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The Survey’s top line revenue index fell four points m/m in October 2025 to -6.4. This is the lowest reading for the revenue index since July 2020. Similarly, the employment index fell to -5.8 in October 2025 from -3.6 in September 2025, and was the lowest reading for this index since May 2020. Nevertheless, the future expectations (six months) revenue index remained in positive territory in October 2025 at 33.7. This was only slightly weaker than the prior month’s 35.3 and only modestly below its rolling 12-month average of 36.2. 


The Texas Retail Outlook Survey, a component of the broader service sector survey, also contracted in October. The top line sales index fell to -23.5 in October from -17.2 a month earlier. The employment index fell sharply to -15.3 in October from -3.0 in September. While the October sales index reading was not as weak as it was in late Spring/early Summer 2025 period, when the index slumped to -30.5 in May and -29.5 in June, the employment index was at its worst level since April 2020, when it fell to -49.1. Here again though, the six months expectations sales index remained in positive territory in October 2025 at 23.2.

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