State Economic Watch

Manufacturing activity in New York State eased modestly in September according to today’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The headline general business conditions index fell 13 points m/n to a still positive reading of +7.6. Similarly, both the New orders and shipments indexes fell, but new orders remained positive at +2.0 while shipments moved into negative territory at -3.2.  The employment indexes were firm however, with employee count improving to +10.6 from +9.3 in July, and hours worked increasing 10.1 points m/m to 17.0.  Finally, the six-month forward looking indexes were mostly modestly lower in the September survey, with the general business conditions expectations index falling 3.1 points m/m to a still positive +29. The new orders and shipments expectations indexes were also down modestly but remained firmly in positive territory, while the capex expectations index was a touch lower but essentially unchanged at 14.9. Th...

A report from the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation, leaked by Politico on Saturday, concludes that the economic cost of the threatened relocation of Paramount from California could be quite costly to the state. The report estimates that a full withdrawal of Paramount operations would result in a loss of up to 58,000 jobs and a reduction in total economic output of over $21 billion annually. The relocation threat is the product of the dispute between Paramount-Skydance and a coalition of state attorneys general who are seeking to block its proposed merger with Warner Brothers Discovery.

Non-current mortgages moved lower in July, according to the most recent ICE Mortgage Monitor . The service reported that total non-current mortgages nationally dropped to 3.9% in the month compared to 4.1% in June, with the delinquency falling to 3.4% from 3.6% in the prior month, and foreclosures holding steady at 0.5%. However, both of these figures were higher y/y. Delinquency and foreclosure rates were the highest in the South and Midwest, with Louisiana (8.2%), Mississippi (8.1%), Alabama (6.0%), Indiana (6.0%), and Arkansas (5.6%) comprising the top five. The states with the best performing mortgages in July were concentrated in the West, with Idaho, Montana, Washington, California, and Oregon reporting the lowest non-current rates, all 2.4% or less. The states seeing the greatest y/y increase in non-current rates were Hawaii (28.7%), Colorado (+17.2%), Michigan (+16.4%), Kentucky (+15.8%), and Indiana (+14.1%). New York, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Idaho say y/y declines in thei...

The Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism moved its estimate of the state’s GDP growth lower in its latest quarterly economic report . The Department now estimates  real GDP growth of 1.3% for the state in 2026 compared to the previous quarterly estimate of 1.6%. Additionally, it forecasts growth of 1.6% in 2027 and 1.8% in 2028 and 2029. Actual real GDP growth in 2025 was 2.5%. Non-ag employment growth is projected to be 0.3% for 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, 2028, and 2029. Finally, the Department anticipates an increase in visitor arrivals of 0.9% in 2026 with shorter stays and 4.5% fewer visitor days, but an increase in visitor spend of 2.3%. 

The new Connecticut Consumer Outlook Survey from the CBIA Foundation Economic Growth & Opportunity indicates that most of the state’s residents are under increasing financial pressure. According to the survey results, 50% of Connecticut residents view themselves as worse off financially than a year ago, and only 9% think they are in better shape. Further, 40% expect their financial condition to deteriorate over the next twelve months. As far as the overall Connecticut economy is concerned, 42% think it will be bad or mostly bad over the course of the next year, while 57% expect a recession in the next twelve months. One of the principal drivers of these downbeat figures appears to be the cost of living, as 87% of respondents indicated that the cost of living in the state has risen slightly or significantly over the last year.

In its latest quarterly forecast , the University of Virginia's Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service has upgraded its projection of Virginia’s GDP growth to 0.5% in 2026 compared to the 0.2% decline it had forecast in May. Consistent with prior forecasts, the UVA economists see the state’s economic growth improving after 2026, with the new forecast calling for state GDP growth of 1.4% in 2027 and 1,6% in 2028. However, they note that the state’s economic growth is not accompanied by a corresponding growth in employment, as they forecast a 18,500 decline in payrolls for the state in 2026. While the state’s unemployment rate has continued to stay low, the UVA economists note that this has been due, in part, to sizable declines in the state’s labor force since early 2025. 

A new poll from the Albuquerque Journal found that only 16% of those polled ranked the New Mexico economy as good, while only 1% thought it was excellent. On the other side of the ledger, 43% of respondents said the economy was fair and 38% labeled it as poor. In fairness, these results are reportedly not too dissimilar to those of the previous poll taken in 2024.