State Economic Watch

Today’s release of the July 2025 S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices showed continued strength in housing prices nationally, with the U.S. National Index increasing 1.7% y/y, the 20-City Composite Index increasing 1.8%, and the 10-City Index increasing 2.3%. The underlying data, though, illustrates some significant regional differences with cities in the Northeast and Midwest seeing continued strength in their respective indexes, but those in the Sun Belt and West Coast experiencing weakness. The index for New York saw the greatest y/y increase in July at 6.4%, followed closely by Chicago at 6.2%. Tampa posted the y/y largest index decline at -2.8%. Note also that the July release finally pushed Phoenix into negative territory at -0.9% y/y. You can read the press release here .   

In a recent Op-Ed, the President and CEO of the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce, Tom Bracken, sounded the alarm bells over the drop in corporation business tax receipts in the first two months of the new fiscal year (7/1). In the op-ed, Bracken points out that corporation business tax collections were down 54.8% through August 31, 2025 compared to the same period last year, and that the related Business Alternative Income Tax collections were down 36% y/y. Bracken calls this a “warning sign that the state’s economic engine is stalling”. Not surprisingly, the State Treasurer’s Office begs to differ and retorts that it’s too early in the fiscal year to draw these kinds of conclusions and notes that the quarterly estimated corporate business tax payments, which are typically larger than the July-August collections, don’t come in until September. You can find a link to Tom Bracken’s op-ed here and a related article by NJ Spotlight News here .

Florida TaxWatch is forecasting continued growth in the state's economy over the next ten years, but at a slower pace than in recent years. In its Florida Economic Forecast report, the organization estimates that the state’s population growth rate will fall from 1.4% in 2025 to 0.8% by 2034, and that Florida’s real GDP growth will slow from 2.4% in 2025 to 1.2% by 2034. Florida TaxWatch cites a slowing in next migration as one of the reasons for the projected moderation in the state’s rate of economic growth as residents move to states with perceived lower costs of living. You can find a link to the press release here and to the full report here .

The University of North Carolina Charlotte is forecasting real GDP growth of 2.1% for the state in 2026.  In the latest release of its North Carolina Economic Forecast, UNC Charlotte Belk College of Business expects this growth to be led by the information sector at 3.9%, agriculture at 3.8% and mining at 3.5%. The report also forecasts a 1.6% increase in state employment in 2026. While the report identifies a few risks to the forecast, it notes that tariffs are a “wild card”. You can access the press release here and the full forecast report here .

New research by the Brookings Institution identifies some signs of economic weakening in the 23-county Washington DC metro area in the wake of the Trump administration’s efforts to restructure and downsize the federal government. In conjunction with the release of this report, Brookings is launching its DMV Monitor which it says will “track real-time changes in the regional economy since January 2025 to capture the effects of federal restructuring and other national policy shifts”.  The statistic in the release that caught my eye was the 64% increase in home listings in the metro area compared to the national average of 29%. You can find a link to the report here .

This morning, the BEA released its estimates for 2Q2025 state GDP and personal income. Real GDP increased in 48 states in 2Q2025 and declined in two. North Dakota experienced the strongest growth in GDP at an annualized rate of 7.3% followed by Texas at 6.8%, both of which posted strong gains in the mining (oil & gas) sector. Real GDP fell in Arkansas (-1.1%) and Mississippi (-0.9%). Declines in the agricultural sector drove most of the GDP drops in those states. Conversely, the agricultural sector contributed significantly to GDP growth in Kansas, which posted the third highest 2Q2025 increase in GDP at 6.7%. The personal income statistics showed a similar story. Personal income increased in all 50 states in the second quarter. Kansas posted the highest annualized rate of 10.4%, while Arkansas had the lowest at 0.9%, but here again, agriculture was the swing factor. While farm income helped boost the earnings component of personal income in Kansas to 12.2% for the quarter, it was ...

Interesting research out of the Urban Institute on the effects of the potential expiration of the enhanced premium tax credits on both the number of people receiving health care Marketplace subsidies and the overall number of uninsured. In the piece, the Urban Institute estimates the declines in coverage on a state-by-state basis. According to the analysis, Mississippi could see the largest increase in uninsured at 65%, while the increase would be less than 5% for Connecticut, DC, Hawaii,Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina and Utah.

States experienced a notable decline in international tourism this summer. According to Travel and Tour World, Oregon saw a 21% drop  in international tourism spending in July 2025 compared to the prior year. Whether this is a one time event limited to 2025, or a longer term issue, remains to be seen.

The Philadelphia Fed released its August 2025 State Coincident Indexes today. The August statistics indicate continued economic growth across the majority of the states, with 44 of the 50 states posting index value increases over the prior three months. While five states posted declines, Maryland saw the largest drop with a three-month decrease of 0.6% in its index. This is possibly  the result of an increase in Maryland’s unemployment rate to 3.6% in August from 3.3% in June, and a modest decrease in manufacturing payrolls of 1,500 over the same period.

There wasn’t anything particularly notable in the August 2025 state employment report. The BLS reported on Friday that state unemployment rates were largely stable, with rates remaining unchanged in 45 states m/m. South Dakota enjoyed the lowest unemployment rate in August at 1.9%, while the District of Columbia had the highest rate at 6%, followed by California at 5.5%. The story was much the same on the employment front, with nonfarm payrolls unchanged m/m in 49 states. Utah saw the largest m/m percentage increase in payrolls at 0.5%, driven in large measure by gains in government employment, while the District of Columbia experienced the largest percentage decrease at (0.7%). This drop was principally the result of declines in government, education, and business services payrolls. On a y/y basis, 20 states reported gains in payrolls while employment levels in 30 states were essentially unchanged. South Carolina saw the largest y/y percentage increase at 3.1% with the business servic...

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is scheduled to release its August 2025 State Coincident Indexes this Wednesday, September 24. In last month’s release, the Philadelphia Fed reported that over the three month period ending July 2025, these economic indexes had increased in 41 states, decreased in eight, and remained unchanged in one . On Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its annual update of state gross domestic product, personal income, and personal consumption expenditures. In this annual exercise, the BEA typically looks back five years. In last year’s update report, the revisions to these three economic statistics were very modest. It should be noted that Friday’s report will contain both the annual revisions and new estimates of state gross domestic product, personal income, and personal consumption expenditures. This will be the first time that the BEA will be reporting all three of these indicators in one unified release.